Key Takeaways
• Ending birthright citizenship would increase the unauthorized population by 2.7 million by 2045, not decrease it.
• Executive Order 14156 faces multiple federal legal challenges and is currently blocked as most experts consider it unconstitutional.
• Children born in the U.S. could become stateless, forming a permanent underclass without access to citizenship, health, or education.
The issue of birthright citizenship in the United States 🇺🇸 has become a focal point in recent debates over immigration policy. New research from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) and Penn State University’s Population Research Institute shows that ending birthright citizenship would likely have effects much different from what many supporters of such a change expect. Instead of lowering the unauthorized population, research shows that such a step would actually lead to more growth in the unauthorized population, with even more complicated social, legal, and health problems.
This article explores the projected impact of Executive Order 14156, examines the data and projections from key studies, explains health and social consequences, covers the constitutional background, and highlights the real-world impacts for families and communities in the United States 🇺🇸.
Introduction and Reason for the Debate
Birthright citizenship is the rule that anyone born on U.S. soil automatically becomes a U.S. citizen, no matter the immigration status of their parents. This principle comes from the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. Growing debate has called this rule into question, with some policy-makers suggesting that ending birthright citizenship would prevent future growth of the unauthorized population.
To address these claims, the MPI and Penn State University ran detailed studies to measure what would actually happen if birthright citizenship ended. Their findings challenge basic assumptions about immigration patterns and show that such a policy would create greater—not fewer—problems.
Executive Order 14156: The Current Status
On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued Executive Order 14156, titled “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship.” This order aims to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States 🇺🇸 to two main groups:
– Children whose mothers are undocumented immigrants, and whose fathers are not citizens or green card holders.
– Children whose mothers have temporary legal status, such as student, work, or tourist visas, again with fathers who are not citizens or green card holders.
After the order was announced, legal challenges quickly followed. Four different federal judges, each in different parts of the country, have temporarily stopped the order from being enforced while lawsuits are decided. Judge Coughenour, who was appointed by President Reagan, described the order as “blatantly unconstitutional” when he issued his restraining order. The central reason for these lawsuits is that the Fourteenth Amendment is seen by most legal experts as guaranteeing birthright citizenship to all who are born within the United States 🇺🇸, regardless of their parents’ status.
Projected Increase in the Unauthorized Population
The main argument made by those wanting to end birthright citizenship is that it would cut down the unauthorized population and discourage unauthorized immigration. However, the MPI-Penn State study shows the opposite is true. If birthright citizenship ended, projections reveal:
- The unauthorized population would rise by an extra 2.7 million by 2045.
- By 2075, 5.4 million more unauthorized residents would be added.
- By 2075, the total unauthorized population could reach 17.1 million.
The studies modeled what would happen if the denial of birthright citizenship applied even more broadly—such as to every baby born with just one unauthorized parent, not two. In this case, the unauthorized population could grow to as many as 24 million by 2050—more than double the current estimate of 11 million.
This sharp rise happens because ending birthright citizenship creates a large group of U.S.-born children who would not be citizens and, in most cases, would not have legal status in any country. These children would grow up in the United States 🇺🇸 but would not become part of the U.S. citizen population.
Data Visualization and Explanation
Imagine a line graph with two curves. The bottom curve shows the expected unauthorized population if birthright citizenship remains in place, slowly changing over time, with modest increases and decreases depending on other policies and global conditions. The top curve shows a steep upward line after birthright citizenship ends—jumping to 2.7 million more unauthorized people by 2045 and then up to 5.4 million more by 2075.
This change does not come from new arrivals, but from children born in the United States 🇺🇸 who never become citizens. Each new generation adds to this population.
Creation of a Multi-Generational Underclass
One of the most worrying findings from the MPI-Penn State study is the creation over time of a “self-perpetuating class” of people with little chance for legal status. By 2050, it is estimated that about 1 million unauthorized residents would be the children of two parents who themselves were born in the United States 🇺🇸 but never received citizenship. This group—fully American in birth, language, and culture—would be marked by their lack of official status.
As reported by VisaVerge.com, this scenario risks the development of a new permanent underclass, made up mostly of people who would be unable to change their legal standing “through no fault of their own.” They would be forced to live on the margins of society. Over time, this would likely cause deep social divides, echoing systems from history where people’s futures depended on birth status.
Disproportionate Effects on Certain Communities
The impact would be especially harsh for Mexicans and Central Americans. These communities currently make up about three-quarters of all unauthorized immigrants in the United States 🇺🇸. A change to birthright citizenship would mean even more children born to these groups would be left without a clear path to legal status, increasing poverty and social exclusion in communities that already face many challenges.
Health and Social Consequences
The UCLA Latino Policy & Politics Institute looked into further effects beyond population numbers. Denying citizenship to children has consequences that reach into health, education, and community stability.
- Access to Healthcare and Education: Without citizenship, children often cannot get the healthcare or education enjoyed by citizen children. Many public services depend on legal status.
- Risk of Statelessness: Some parents’ home countries do not automatically grant their citizenship to children born abroad. Children born under the new rules could be stuck without citizenship in any country, which is called being “stateless.”
- Fear and the Chilling Effect: Even the possibility of these rules can scare families away from seeking the help they need, leading to lower use of health services and worse birth outcomes. Families might avoid using programs that keep children healthy and safe, out of fear their information could be used against them.
- Disproportionate Harm to Latinos: Because Latinos make up a large share of both the current unauthorized and mixed-status families, these effects will fall hardest on Latino communities. Even citizen children in these families might suffer, as fear and lack of trust keep families from asking for help.
Table Example
A table could show two groups of children born in the United States 🇺🇸:
– Citizens: Full access to healthcare, education, and basic services.
– Non-citizens (under the new rule): Limited or no access to many services, higher risk of poverty and worse health.
Constitutional Context
At the heart of this debate is the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, adopted in 1868. This amendment states clearly that “all persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens.” Most legal scholars agree that this rule does not exclude children born to parents without legal status.
Efforts to change this rule by executive order, such as Executive Order 14156, are argued to be outside the president’s authority. Lawsuits against the order say that the executive branch cannot, through its own power, change a constitutional amendment. They also say that such an order would recreate forms of social ranking based only on who your parents are—a system the Fourteenth Amendment aimed to end.
The lawsuits and court challenges make clear that the decision to end birthright citizenship is not simply about numbers or rules, but about deeper issues of equality, belonging, and the meaning of citizenship.
Comparing Policies: What Would Really Happen?
Based on clear projections and the available data:
- Ending birthright citizenship would not achieve the goal of reducing the unauthorized population. Instead, millions more people would be denied a legal place in the country where they were born and have lived all their lives.
- Children and grandchildren born in the United States 🇺🇸 would find themselves without a country to call their own. Some would even be stateless, as their parents’ birth countries do not always recognize them as citizens.
- Social services that keep children and families healthy would become harder to access, as fear and confusion spread among immigrant families.
These issues would only grow larger with every new generation.
What Does the Research Mean for Immigration Policy?
The clear message from the MPI-Penn State studies is that ending birthright citizenship would make the problems policymakers aim to fix much worse. The unauthorized population would grow much larger. Lawsuits would follow, adding to legal confusion. On top of this, the health, safety, and future of millions—including children born and raised in the United States 🇺🇸—would be put at greater risk.
According to sources, the expected increase in the unauthorized population is not due to more people arriving at the border, but to more children born inside the United States 🇺🇸 being denied citizenship. This point is important for policymakers to understand, as it changes the entire debate about immigration enforcement and population numbers.
Limitations and Details About the Data
While these studies use the best available data and careful methods to make predictions, it’s important to remember that predicting population growth over decades is complex. Some factors—such as sudden changes in migration laws, economic conditions, or global events—could change the numbers. However, the direction and scale of the effect—millions more people living without legal status—remain strong conclusions. The studies use current Census and Department of Homeland Security data and build their projections using standard demographic methods to account for births, deaths, and policy changes.
Resources for Further Information
To learn more about how birthright citizenship works and U.S. immigration law, see the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services guidance on citizenship and nationality. For more on court cases and the executive order, see the detailed legal summaries available at the American Immigration Council and other nonprofit sources.
Key Takeaways and Looking Forward
- Birthright citizenship is a key part of the U.S. Constitution. Removing it would have wide-reaching effects on millions of people.
- Ending birthright citizenship would increase—not decrease—the unauthorized population by millions over the next 25–50 years.
- The result would be a permanent, multi-generational underclass of people born and raised in the United States 🇺🇸 with no clear citizenship, limited rights, and greater social exclusion.
- Health, education, and economic outcomes would worsen, with especially strong effects on Latino and mixed-status families.
- The debate is not just about technical rules. It is also about the kind of society the United States 🇺🇸 chooses to be: one with equal membership for all born within its borders, or one where who your parents are determines your legal standing.
As the legal and political process continues, it is important to ground these conversations in facts and clear projections. The evidence does not support the hope that ending birthright citizenship would shrink the unauthorized population. Instead, it suggests it would make current challenges larger and more complicated for everyone.
For updated information, always look to government and respected nonprofit organizations, and follow ongoing legal cases to see how policies like Executive Order 14156 unfold. By staying informed, both individuals and communities can better prepare for whatever decisions are made in the future.
Learn Today
Birthright Citizenship → A principle granting automatic U.S. citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil, regardless of parental immigration status.
Unauthorized Population → Individuals living in the United States without legal immigration status, including those who entered unlawfully or overstayed visas.
Executive Order 14156 → A directive proposed by President Trump in 2025 seeking to end birthright citizenship for certain children born in the U.S.
Fourteenth Amendment → A section of the U.S. Constitution guaranteeing citizenship to all born or naturalized in the country, central to the debate.
Stateless → Describes individuals who are not recognized as citizens by any country, lacking basic rights, protections, or legal status.
This Article in a Nutshell
Debates over birthright citizenship have intensified with Executive Order 14156. Contrary to its intent, studies show ending birthright citizenship would substantially grow the unauthorized population. Millions could be left stateless, facing health and legal hardship. Legal challenges underline its conflict with the Fourteenth Amendment’s constitutional guarantee. The data refute policy assumptions.
— By VisaVerge.com
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