Ottawa urged to count 500,000 undocumented residents in immigration targets

(Ottawa) Ottawa is now facing growing pressure to count an estimated 500,000 undocumented residents as it reviews future immigration targets, with public consultations open until August 17, 2025. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is gathering feedback to shape the next plan after sharp shifts announced over the past year. The federal government lowered permanent resident goals to 395,000 PRs in 2025 and set new limits on temporary residents, a move that has reset expectations for families and employers. Advocates say any plan that ignores people already living here risks deepening hardship and policy gaps.

Recent changes: the Immigration Levels Plan and temporary resident limits

In the fall of 2024, Ottawa unveiled the Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027, dialing back earlier ambitions. The plan sets:

• 395,000 PRs in 2025
• 380,000 PRs in 2026
• 365,000 PRs in 2027

At the same time, IRCC aims to shrink the temporary resident share from 7.4% of the population to 5% by the end of 2026. That change implies cutting about 445,000 admissions across 2025 and 2026.

Provinces were also affected: federal cuts halved Provincial Nominee Program allocations for 2025, forcing tighter intake rules and narrower occupation lists. Provinces are recalibrating their nominee programs to align with federal caps, which has led to:

• fewer invitations
• stricter selection criteria
• disruptions to sectors that rely on steady streams of skilled workers

Consultations and how to take part

IRCC’s consultations run from July 21 to August 17, 2025, and invite comments on how many newcomers Canada can welcome and which programs should expand or contract. The department asks Canadians to weigh:

• housing capacity
• health-care resources
• labour-market needs
• the presence of people already in the country without status

The official consultation page explains how to submit feedback and what topics are under review: https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/transparency/consultations/2025-consultations-immigration-levels.html

Deadline reminder: public feedback is open only until August 17, 2025.

Pressure to address people without status

Advocacy groups, labour unions, and settlement workers argue that excluding the estimated 500,000 undocumented residents would hide a major part of Canada’s migration reality.

• Many undocumented people are former students, caregivers, or workers who overstayed permits or lost status after job changes, school interruptions, or paperwork delays.
• They pay rent, raise children, and contribute to communities, but often lack stable access to health care and fair work, making them vulnerable to exploitation.
• Groups are urging Ottawa to create or expand regularization programs so long‑term residents can apply for status.

Officials say they must balance population goals with available housing and public services. Immigration Minister Marc Miller has described the issue as complex and said “all options are on the table” regarding the mix and size of future immigration.

System capacity and downstream effects

Immigration lawyers warn the system is already strained, with more than 2 million people in Canada waiting for status changes or permanent residence. Key concerns include:

• The plan to cut admissions assumes some temporary residents will depart or find alternate routes.
• Stricter work permit rules and tighter student intakes risk increasing the number of people who slip out of status after job losses or school closures.
• More people out of status would add pressure on communities and IRCC’s settlement networks.

Employers who planned hiring around higher targets now face delays or cancellations. Applicants with strong job offers face longer odds. Provinces and employers say they are trying to align with federal caps without losing needed talent.

Human impact: daily life behind the numbers

Behind the policy charts is daily hardship:

• A personal support worker who loses a job when an employer closes may miss a renewal and fall out of status within weeks.
• A former international student might not meet new proof‑of‑funds checks and lose eligibility.
• Without status, people may avoid clinics, accept unsafe work, or keep children home from activities for fear of exposure.

Advocates argue that regularization would restore basic rights, reduce exploitation, and relieve pressure on underground labour markets.

Policy options and what’s next

Officials have not proposed a large, sweeping regularization program but have said they are studying options. Potential approaches discussed publicly include:

• introducing new pathways for people without status
• adjusting existing categories to reflect the realities of people already in Canada

No final decisions have been announced. The final 2026–2028 plan is expected in the fall after consultations close, and it will set the tone for both permanent and temporary streams.

Stakes and perspectives

Only a year ago, Ottawa planned to welcome 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025. The reversal to lower levels and the new focus on temporary resident caps were framed as responses to:

• housing shortages
• strained public services
• public concern about the pace and scale of immigration

Supporters of tighter levels argue a pause will allow systems to catch up. Economists and community leaders counter that undocumented residents already work, pay taxes, and support local economies, yet face higher risks of underpayment and unsafe conditions.

Their argument for regularization:

• would protect workers and improve wages
• would improve health outcomes
• would give employers a stable, legal workforce

Without status solutions, critics warn, Ottawa’s numerical management could push more people into the shadows and undermine integrity and labour standards.

Key facts at a glance

Final note

Canadians who want to participate have a short window: feedback is open until August 17, 2025. The consultations will inform whether Ottawa recognizes the estimated 500,000 undocumented residents, how strictly the Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027 is applied, and what it means to cap admissions at 395,000 PRs in 2025 while lowering totals in 2026 and 2027. For many families, the outcome will determine whether they can stay together and plan for the future.