Former Agriculture Leaders Say Mass Deportations Are Wreaking Havoc on U.S. Food Supply

Early February 2026 brought two concrete policy triggers that agriculture employers and workers are already reacting to: (1) DHS’s termination of TPS for Ethiopia and Somalia, and (2) a USCIS/DOL temporary final rule expanding the FY 2026 H-2B cap. At the same time, former agriculture officials warned Congress that stepped-up enforcement and “mass deportations” are wreaking havoc across labor-intensive production, with downstream implications for the U.S. food supply.

The immediate news hook is a February 3, 2026 stakeholder letter from 24 former agriculture leaders, followed by February 4 agency responses and media coverage. The central dispute is bidirectional: stakeholders say removals shrink the farm labor pool and disrupt production, while the administration frames enforcement as restoring order and protecting U.S. jobs.

Agriculture is especially sensitive because work is seasonal, crops are perishable, margins are thin, and farms are often far from alternative labor markets.

What the Government Has Confirmed (and What It Means)

DHS has publicly defended enforcement as job protection and system integrity. A DHS Assistant Secretary stated in November 2025 that the administration would “secure the border, enforce our laws … and protect American jobs,” and that “the era of … visa abuse is over.”

USDA messaging on February 4, 2026 emphasized “strengthening the farm workforce” and pointed to “streamlining H-2A and H-2B.” Two policy actions matter most for near-term staffing.

1) H-2B temporary final rule (announced Jan. 30, 2026)

USCIS and DOL announced a temporary final rule increasing the H-2B cap for FY 2026. A temporary final rule takes effect without the usual advance notice-and-comment timeline, though it typically still invites post-publication comments.

For employers, the practical point is speed: it may open additional visa numbers sooner than a standard rulemaking would. H-2B is the seasonal, non-agricultural program used heavily in seafood processing, landscaping, hospitality, and some food-adjacent sectors.

While crops are generally H-2A, farms and processors often rely on both programs across related operations.

2) TPS terminations for Ethiopia and Somalia (announced Feb. 3, 2026; effective Mar. 17, 2026)

DHS announced TPS will end for Ethiopia and Somalia effective March 17, 2026. TPS is authorized by INA § 244 and can provide protection from removal and work authorization for eligible nationals during the designation period.

Termination does not automatically remove someone on the effective date, but it can end TPS-based work authorization and lawful presence protections after any wind-down rules, depending on the person’s status history and filings.

Warning: TPS holders should not assume they remain work-authorized after a termination’s effective date. Employers should re-check Form I-9 rules and USCIS guidance before making staffing decisions.

The Mechanisms: Why Enforcement, Wages, and Status Changes Move Labor Markets

Several moving parts connect immigration policy to harvest timing and processing capacity.

Unauthorized workforce share. USDA figures cited in recent reporting estimate roughly half of hired crop farmworkers lack lawful status, with higher estimates in some states. Those shares do not prove causation for any single price change, but they do explain fragility.

When labor is already tight, increased arrests, removals, or fear-driven departures can quickly affect planting and harvesting decisions.

AEWR wage-floor rule for H-2A. DOL’s Adverse Effect Wage Rate is a required wage floor intended to prevent downward pressure on U.S. workers’ wages. A DOL rule effective October 2, 2025 reportedly lowered AEWR methodology.

The administration argues it reduces legal labor costs and supports recruitment. Worker advocates argue it reduces earnings and can worsen retention. Either way, wage floors are not only a worker issue; they also affect whether growers can shift from unauthorized labor to lawful programs at scale.

Removals vs. “self-departures.” Public reporting describes large removal totals since January 2025, plus a much larger number leaving to avoid enforcement. These are different phenomena. Formal removals can remove experienced workers abruptly, while voluntary departures can be more diffuse but still destabilize staffing, housing, and school attendance in farm communities.

Case reexamination initiatives (Operation PARRIS). DHS/USCIS efforts to reexamine certain refugee cases through added checks may increase uncertainty for affected communities and employers. Even when outcomes are lawful and individualized, the process itself can chill mobility and willingness to switch worksites.

Deadline: TPS termination for Ethiopia and Somalia is effective March 17, 2026. Individuals should confirm whether an EAD extension, re-registration, or alternative status filing applies in their case.

Why Agriculture Is Splitting Over the Policy Direction

The February 3 letter reflects a familiar divide inside agriculture and aligned political coalitions. Some favor strict enforcement and argue wages must rise to attract domestic workers.

Others argue domestic substitution is limited by seasonality, remote worksites, physically demanding conditions, and retention challenges.

Operationally, farms make decisions months ahead. If labor supply looks uncertain, growers may reduce acreage in labor-intensive crops, shift to mechanized varieties, renegotiate processor contracts, or accept higher crop-loss risk.

Those choices can translate into less product in distribution channels, which can affect price volatility and availability—especially for produce. That is the pathway stakeholders cite when warning about food supply risks.

Practical Impact: Farmers, Workers, and Consumers

Employers and farm managers. Expect heightened compliance pressure and tighter labor planning for the 2026 season. Staffing uncertainty can affect financing covenants, crop insurance assumptions, and contract delivery commitments.

Some employers may pivot to H-2A/H-2B, but lead times, housing requirements (H-2A), and recruitment steps can be substantial.

Workers (including mixed-status families). Even lawful workers may avoid interstate travel or switching employers. That can reduce efficient matching of labor to peak harvest needs and reduce reporting of wage theft or unsafe conditions.

Consumers. Price effects are hard to attribute to one cause. Still, plausible channels include unharvested crops, reduced processing throughput, and higher compliance and recruitment costs passed down the chain.

Warning: Traveling domestically with pending immigration matters, prior removal orders, or expiring documents can carry risk. Individuals should consult counsel before travel, especially near interior checkpoints or if ICE activity is reported locally.

Are There Appeals, Challenges, or Transition Rules?

TPS termination decisions are frequently litigated, but outcomes vary by jurisdiction and timing. Any injunction would be case-specific and could change deadlines.

Employers should watch DHS and USCIS postings for wind-down guidance, EAD auto-extensions, or updated Federal Register notices.

For the H-2B temporary final rule, litigation is possible, but the rule’s immediate effect often matters more than later court timelines for seasonal employers. Employers should read the Federal Register text carefully for eligibility criteria and allocation rules.

Recommended Actions (Next 30–60 Days)

1. TPS holders from Ethiopia or Somalia: speak with a qualified immigration attorney immediately about alternatives (family, employment, asylum-related relief, or other options) and EAD timing.
2. Employers: audit I-9 practices, avoid over-documentation, and plan for reverification where required. Consider earlier H-2A/H-2B filing calendars.
3. Workers with pending cases or prior orders: get a risk assessment before travel and keep copies of receipts and status documents.

Official government sources to verify changes

Use primary sources to confirm effective dates, eligibility, and implementation details:

• USCIS newsroom for program announcements: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom

Resources:

• AILA Lawyer Search