Ending birthright citizenship could grow US unauthorized population, MPI says

Key Takeaways

• Ending birthright citizenship would increase the unauthorized population by 4.7 million by 2050.
• Children born to unauthorized parents would remain stateless for generations, doubling under-18 unauthorized rates.
• Recent legal actions, like Executive Order 14156, face court challenges and have not taken effect.

The Migration Policy Institute has released research in cooperation with Pennsylvania State University warning that repealing birthright citizenship in the United States would lead to a rapid and long-lasting rise in the unauthorized population. This analysis provides a thorough review of those findings, showing how the end of birthright citizenship could reshape the country’s immigration landscape for generations.

Introduction: The Debate Over Birthright Citizenship

Birthright citizenship, which means any child born in the United States 🇺🇸 is automatically a citizen regardless of their parents’ immigration status, has long been a foundation of U.S. immigration and identity. Recently, calls to change or remove this automatic citizenship have intensified. New bills, such as the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2025, and executive orders from President Trump have sparked debate and legal action. The Migration Policy Institute (MPI), widely respected for its fact-based immigration research, has examined what would likely happen if these changes took place.

Key Findings: Projected Growth of the Unauthorized Population

The central discovery in the Migration Policy Institute’s research is striking: repealing birthright citizenship would actually increase the unauthorized population—the number of people living in the country without legal status.

Summary of Projected Numbers

1. By 2045, the unauthorized population would be about 2.7 million people higher than it would be if birthright citizenship remained in place.
2. By 2050, the increase would reach 4.7 million people.
3. By 2075, the unauthorized population would be 5.4 million higher than it would be otherwise.

To put this in simple words, if the United States 🇺🇸 stopped granting automatic citizenship at birth to all babies born on its soil, millions more people would live in the country without legal papers.

The Most Extreme Scenario

In the scenario where children born to at least one unauthorized parent are denied citizenship, the numbers become even more dramatic. According to MPI:

• The unauthorized population could rise from today’s estimated 11 million to as high as 24 million by 2050.

This means that instead of reducing unauthorized immigration—a main goal cited by proponents—the policy could double the number of people in the country without legal status.

Visual Representation: Population Growth Over Time

Imagine a simple line graph. The horizontal axis runs from 2025 to 2075, and the vertical axis shows the size of the unauthorized population in millions. One line shows a steady, slight increase or flat line, representing current birthright citizenship rules. Another line starts off similarly, but soon rises sharply, showing a big upward curve—this is the projection if birthright citizenship is ended. By 2050, the two lines are far apart, with the one representing repeal much higher.

Multi-Generational Effects: Creation of a Self-Perpetuating Unauthorized Class

Perhaps the most worrying part of the study is the finding that children born in the United States 🇺🇸 to parents who are themselves unauthorized (and may also have been born in the country) would still not receive citizenship.

By the numbers:

• By 2050, there would be nearly 1 million children living in the United States who were born to two parents who were also born in the United States—yet not one of them would be considered a citizen.
• This pattern would repeat generation after generation, creating a group within society that would always be seen as outsiders with no legal status or firm place in society.

Doubling of Unauthorized Children

MPI predicts that the share of children under 18 who are unauthorized would double, going from 2% today to 4% by 2050. In practice, this means more children would grow up in families with no legal way to belong, even after generations of living in the United States 🇺🇸.

What Is Birthright Citizenship, and Why Is It Important?

Birthright citizenship, often called “jus soli,” means anyone born in the country is automatically a citizen. For over a century, this policy has ensured that children born in the United States 🇺🇸 become full members of American society at birth, regardless of their parents’ status.

Repealing birthright citizenship would mean that children born in the country to unauthorized immigrants, or even to people with temporary visas, would not receive citizenship. Instead, they would inherit their parents’ lack of status, leading to large numbers of people—many of whom know no other home—growing up without access to full rights.

Legal and Political Landscape: Current Policy Initiatives

Several political efforts have aimed to change or remove birthright citizenship:

• The Birthright Citizenship Act of 2025, brought forward by Senator Lindsey Graham and Representative Brian Babin, proposes that U.S. citizenship at birth be limited to children who have at least one American citizen or lawful permanent resident parent.
• On January 20, 2025, President Trump issued Executive Order 14156, which tries to end birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented immigrants or parents with only temporary status.

Resistance in the Courts

The move to change birthright citizenship was quickly challenged. By March 2025, four different federal judges had blocked Executive Order 14156, meaning it has not gone into effect. This shows that changing birthright citizenship is not as simple as passing a law or signing an order; it brings up complex legal and constitutional issues that will likely end up in the courts.

Do These Policies Achieve Their Goals? What the Research Shows

Advocates for repealing birthright citizenship often say it will reduce illegal or unauthorized immigration. However, the MPI’s research makes clear that the effect would be the opposite.

• Making it harder for children born in the United States 🇺🇸 to get citizenship would add to, rather than lower, the unauthorized population.
• By removing the promise of citizenship at birth, families would remain without legal status for generations.
• This policy would not stop unauthorized immigration but would make those children (and their grandchildren) unable to join American life fully.

The Human Impact

It’s important to understand that these changes would not only be about numbers.

• Over 150,000 children could be affected every year. These are kids born and raised in the United States 🇺🇸, but if the law changed, they would start life without any legal claim to being part of the only country they have ever known.

• As more children are born to unauthorized parents who themselves were born in the United States 🇺🇸, the group without legal status would multiply.

• These children and their families would be left out of basic rights, public services, and many opportunities most Americans take for granted, such as going to public school, receiving healthcare, or getting a job.

Long-Term Social and Demographic Challenges

The Migration Policy Institute warns that, far from solving problems, ending birthright citizenship would create new, hard-to-fix challenges:

• The United States 🇺🇸 would see the rise of a permanent underclass—a group of people, many born and raised in the country, with no hope of citizenship or legal status. This outcome could last for generations, growing with each new birth.
• The presence of a large unauthorized class could lead to deep problems for society, including more poverty, less access to education and health care, and increased social tension.
• Children and adults who know no other country but the United States 🇺🇸 would be forced to live without the legal rights most Americans consider basic.

Comparing Past and Current Trends

The United States 🇺🇸 has always had some unauthorized immigrants, but until now, children born here have become citizens by law. The MPI research shows that if this changed, the number of unauthorized residents would not just grow but would do so “on autopilot.” Each new generation would add more people to the unauthorized population, rather than seeing it shrink over time.

• The last time the United States 🇺🇸 faced such large groups of people with no way to become citizens was before the Fourteenth Amendment, over 150 years ago.
• The current system helps fill gaps in society and lets families build better lives. Removing this would take the country into unknown and risky territory.

Visual Representation: Generational Impact Table

A simple table could show the generations affected:

This table shows how, under a changed law, no matter how many generations a family has lived in the United States 🇺🇸, a child will not be a citizen if their parents are unauthorized—creating a permanent class.

Implications for Policy and Future Decisions

The findings from the Migration Policy Institute should be a wake-up call for lawmakers and the public. Decisions made now will have effects that last for many years, shaping families, communities, and the nation’s future.

• Any policy that removes birthright citizenship would leave a growing number of children and adults locked out of the legal and social life of the United States 🇺🇸.
• The under-18 population lacking citizenship could create a new reality for teachers, social workers, doctors, and all Americans who interact with children.
• Fixing the situation later would be very hard, as making millions of people citizens after the fact would require complex new laws and agreement across many parts of government.

Addressing the Arguments in Favor of Repeal

Supporters of ending birthright citizenship claim it would “solve” illegal immigration or discourage families from coming to the United States 🇺🇸 without authorization. But the MPI research indicates these claims are not supported by facts. Instead, the country would face:

• More unauthorized residents, not fewer.
• Generations of children with no link to another country but unable to become American.
• More strain on government services, as more people would be living in the shadows.

Legal and Constitutional Background

The idea of birthright citizenship is enshrined in the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which says all people born or naturalized in the country are citizens. For more than a century, this principle has guided U.S. law and helped make the country’s society broad and open.

Changing this principle is a major legal shift. Laws and orders like the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2025 or Executive Order 14156 show how changes would begin, but they face strong court challenges and uncertainty. Courts must consider both the words of the Constitution and the likely results of changing a rule that has shaped the United States 🇺🇸 for generations.

Methodology: How The Data Was Collected

The Migration Policy Institute worked with Pennsylvania State University to develop computer models and look at census data, border records, and other public sources. They tested different scenarios, like what would happen if only some children were denied citizenship and how family backgrounds would affect later generations. These predictions depend on current rules staying the same aside from the possible end of birthright citizenship. There may be changes in migration patterns, law enforcement, or social services, but the main numbers come from reliable, public records.

Limitations of the Data

MPI and its partners focus on current law and actual demographic trends, but future changes—like shifts in migration, new laws, or economic booms and recessions—could affect the numbers. The research gives a strong sense of direction but may not capture every future twist.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

The research from the Migration Policy Institute is clear: repealing birthright citizenship would cause the unauthorized population to grow, not shrink. This policy change would mean millions of new unauthorized residents, most of them children born and raised in the United States 🇺🇸. By turning away from a long-standing law, the country would create deep, lasting social challenges—a permanent class of people shut out of society.

Understanding these outcomes is vital for anyone interested in immigration law or policy. For more on legal citizenship policies and constitutional protections for people born in the United States 🇺🇸, readers can consult this official U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services page. As reported by VisaVerge.com, these complex debates about policy, law, and family must be handled with careful attention to facts and long-term effects, rather than short-term headlines.

The message for lawmakers and the public is simple: repealing birthright citizenship is not a path to reducing unauthorized populations. Instead, it is very likely to make the issue larger and harder to fix, affecting American society for many generations.

Learn Today

Birthright Citizenship → A legal principle granting citizenship to anyone born in the country, regardless of parents’ immigration status.
Unauthorized Population → Individuals residing in a country without legal status or valid immigration documentation.
Executive Order → An official directive from the President carrying the force of law, subject to judicial review.
Fourteenth Amendment → Part of the U.S. Constitution guaranteeing citizenship to those born or naturalized in the United States.
Jus Soli → Latin term meaning ‘right of the soil’, referring to citizenship acquired by birthplace.

This Article in a Nutshell

Repealing birthright citizenship in the U.S. would drastically increase the unauthorized population, not reduce it. The Migration Policy Institute projects millions more individuals without legal status, affecting children for generations. Policymakers must note: ending automatic citizenship at birth would create enduring social challenges rather than solve immigration issues.
— By VisaVerge.com

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