Key Takeaways
• Atlantic immigration targets cut by 50%, heavily impacting the restaurant industry’s workforce supply chain.
• Employers can only fill 10% of low-wage jobs with Temporary Foreign Workers under new Carney government policy.
• New permanent residents capped at 365,000 by 2027, with temporary residents below 5% of Canada’s population.
Atlantic Canada’s restaurant industry is facing a critical period due to big changes in immigration policies set by the new Liberal government under Mark Carney. As the restaurant and foodservice sector employs more than 73,000 people and brings over $6 billion to the Atlantic Canada economy, any policy that affects the flow of workers has a direct impact on the entire region. Recent decisions from Ottawa, combined with Carney’s firm immigration target, have set off alarm bells for business owners, workers, and local communities.
Sharp Drop in Immigration Targets Worries Employers
Restaurants Canada, which speaks for many restaurants across the country, has raised strong concerns about a steep 50 percent cut to Atlantic immigration targets. This includes deep reductions in the number of workers Atlantic Canada can get through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The PNP is a main path that allows provinces to bring in workers they need, and many restaurant owners say they depend on it to fill jobs.
According to Restaurants Canada, these cuts were made without first talking directly with Atlantic provinces or with the businesses who would feel the impact most. Many in the industry believe this leaves the region without a voice in decisions that shape its future. “The biggest threat to our business is immigration policy, and the lack of available workers,” said Blair Hyslop, co-owner of Mrs. Dunster’s Bakery in New Brunswick. Of his 275 employees, 56 are on temporary work permits.
For more than a year, Restaurants Canada has pushed for a program to match unemployed newcomers with open work permits to jobs in vital industries, especially in smaller towns. This would help people who are already in Canada find work in places that need them most. However, with the government focusing more on setting new immigration targets and staying silent about current unemployment among new arrivals, industry leaders feel their concerns are not being heard.
Mark Carney’s New Immigration Plan
After the federal election on April 28, 2025, the new government led by Mark Carney set out plans that will reshape Canada’s approach to immigration:
- By 2027, the number of new permanent residents will be set at less than 1% of Canada’s population.
- The number of temporary residents will drop to below 5% of the population by the end of 2027.
- New permanent residents will be capped, dropping from 485,000 in 2024 down to 365,000 within three years.
- There will be tighter rules for study and work permits, making it harder for temporary visitors to enter or stay.
- Employers will only be allowed to fill 10% of their low-wage positions with Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs).
Each part of this plan is meant to slow down the number of new people coming into the country, both for short stays and permanently. For the restaurant industry in Atlantic Canada, these new caps could make an already tough worker shortage even worse.
What the Changes Mean for Atlantic Canada’s Restaurants
Many restaurants in Atlantic Canada already have trouble finding enough people to work. This is due to several problems happening at once:
- Aging population: Many people in Atlantic Canada are getting close to retirement.
- Retention issues: Newcomers, after arriving, often leave the region for bigger cities or other provinces, so these communities have a hard time keeping the people they bring in.
- Lower birth rates: With fewer young people growing up in the area, there aren’t enough new workers to replace retirees.
The new immigration cuts target the very programs that help fill gaps in places like Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick.
1. Operational Disruptions
Without enough workers, many restaurants could be forced to cut down their operating hours or reduce the number of days they’re open. Some may need to stop offering dine-in service, and the most affected might close their doors altogether. This not only puts owners and their families at risk, but also the local employees who count on steady hours and tips.
When restaurants cut hours or have to close, it also hurts tourist towns and rural communities. These places are already more dependent on seasonal workers and foreign labor. If these jobs disappear, so do important parts of the local tourist economy.
2. Pressure on Wages and Menu Prices
With the flow of foreign workers slowing to a trickle, employers must fight to hire from a much smaller pool of local workers. This means they have to pay more to attract and keep cooks, servers, and cleaners. According to industry leaders, wages for kitchen staff could jump from $20 an hour to more than $30 an hour.
This jump in pay must come from somewhere, so restaurants may need to raise menu prices. Higher prices could mean fewer customers, or at least put a meal out of reach for some regulars. In turn, this can create a “domino effect”: costs go up, sales go down, and more small businesses are pushed to the edge.
3. Deepening Regional Divide
The challenges faced in Atlantic Canada are not the same as those in bigger cities like Toronto or Vancouver. In those places, there might be more locals looking for work, or other industries to absorb job seekers. In smaller Atlantic communities, there are fewer options, and businesses have a harder time attracting people from elsewhere.
Restaurants Canada and other leaders want to see more consideration given to these differences. They have asked the federal government to look at local needs before setting sweeping country-wide limits.
Calls for a More Flexible Policy
Many in the restaurant sector believe that the new rules do not take into account the different realities of regions like Atlantic Canada. They argue that a “one-size-fits-all” approach does not work for a place with a unique population mix and urgent labor needs. Several owners, along with Restaurants Canada, are asking Ottawa to re-think recent changes and to work alongside provinces to set sensible immigration numbers.
A big part of their argument rests on data. Right now, over 73,000 people work in foodservice jobs across the region. If restaurants cannot bring in the foreign workers they need, there is a real risk this number will drop sharply. When that happens, it hits not just those losing their jobs, but the wider community: farmers, fishers, delivery drivers, and many more.
To get a clear picture of how the immigration system works and the changes under discussion, readers can turn to the official Government of Canada Immigration and Citizenship site. It keeps the most up-to-date information on programs like the Provincial Nominee Program and other immigration paths.
Why the Atlantic Canada Restaurant Sector Needs Immigrants
For a long time, restaurants in Atlantic Canada have depended on newcomers and foreign workers to keep going. The reasons are simple: there are not enough young people in the area to take the place of those who retire, and some jobs in the sector are tough to fill with local workers who might be looking for different careers.
Unlike some parts of the country, where there is more movement between jobs and plenty of people to choose from, Atlantic Canada often has unfilled positions for cooks, servers, and cleaners. Immigrants, international students, and temporary foreign workers have kept many restaurants open, allowing locals to enjoy meals out and giving visitors a taste of what the region has to offer.
Newcomers bring new ideas, new flavors, and more energy to small businesses. They also add to the tax pool, which helps fund schools, hospitals, and other services everyone relies on.
But when the supply of new workers is slowed down or cut off, the whole system feels the pressure.
Specific Effects of the Carney Government’s Immigration Target
Mark Carney’s plans to keep permanent resident admissions below 1% of the population—and temporary residents below 5%—is a sharp turn away from previous governments. As reported by VisaVerge.com, this drop means thousands fewer workers will be available to fill jobs across Canada. For Atlantic Canada, with its weaker local labor supply, this impact is even larger.
Capping Temporary Foreign Workers to just 10% of an employer’s low-wage positions is a heavy blow. Many rural restaurants depend heavily on these workers, especially in the busiest months. If they cannot bring them in, it could mean not only higher prices but fewer open businesses.
The move to limit and control study permits and work permits will also make it harder for international students to stick around after they finish their programs. Many of these students fill gaps in the restaurant workforce during and after their studies.
Different Views on the Policy Changes
Not everyone believes tighter immigration rules will be bad for local workers. Some groups argue that by lowering competition from foreign workers, wages for Canadians could rise and more locals might be encouraged to take foodservice jobs. However, business owners worry that there are simply not enough locals interested or available to meet demand, especially in small or remote communities.
Others also point to the problem of retaining newcomers after they arrive. If immigrants do not stay, the benefit to local economies is lost. Supporters of increased immigration argue that better integration programs and community support are needed to help new arrivals choose Atlantic Canada as their long-term home.
The Road Ahead: What Needs to Change?
Restaurants Canada has been clear: they want the federal government to involve local voices when deciding immigration targets. They suggest federal leaders:
- Reverse the sharp cuts to the Provincial Nominee Program for Atlantic Canada.
- Set targets that reflect actual local job shortages.
- Build up matching and training programs to help unemployed newcomers already living in Canada find work in high-need areas.
They also ask for more regular consultation, so policies can be adjusted quickly when shortages become critical.
What Can Business Owners and Workers in Atlantic Canada Do Now?
Owners and managers in Atlantic Canada’s restaurant sector are preparing for a challenging few years. Many are lobbying their governments and joining calls for more flexible immigration targets. Some are boosting their efforts to hire and train local staff, but worry that these moves will not be enough.
Workers still in the region may see short-term gains in pay but also face less job security if rising costs force restaurants to scale back or close. Immigrants, especially those here on temporary permits, could find it harder to renew their status or bring over family members.
Conclusion: A Need for Regional Balance
Atlantic Canada’s aging workforce and unique mix of big and small towns mean it is more exposed than most provinces to the effects of sweeping immigration cuts. Mark Carney’s government, with its focus on tight population-based immigration targets, is putting further strain on a sector that is already struggling to find and keep workers.
The restaurant industry, backed by Restaurants Canada and local leaders like Blair Hyslop, is urging Ottawa to act in partnership with the region. They recommend setting immigration targets that work for both urban and rural communities, and not forgetting the special needs of areas outside of the biggest cities.
With the province’s workforce at stake, all eyes will be on the federal government’s next steps. Many hope for a balanced approach—one that secures the future of Atlantic Canada’s restaurants and protects the health of its economy for years to come.
Learn Today
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) → A Canadian immigration pathway allowing provinces to nominate needed workers for permanent residence, crucial for local labor markets.
Temporary Foreign Workers (TFWs) → Non-Canadian workers allowed entry for limited employment, often filling seasonal or labor-shortage jobs in sectors like foodservice.
Permanent Resident → An immigrant granted the right to live and work indefinitely in Canada, but not a citizen.
Immigration Target → A government-set goal determining how many new immigrants, both temporary and permanent, may enter in a year.
Retention Issues → Difficulties in keeping newcomers in a region, often due to outmigration to larger cities or other provinces.
This Article in a Nutshell
Atlantic Canada restaurants face crisis after immigration cuts. Carney’s government slashes worker programs, raising wages and menu prices. Local businesses risk closures and reduced hours, especially in rural areas. Employers demand flexible, region-focused immigration targets to prevent labor shortages from threatening this vital $6 billion industry and its 73,000 jobs.
— By VisaVerge.com
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