Trump’s H-1B Overhaul Could Cripple the College-to-Career Pipeline

(UNITED STATES) The Trump administration is moving to replace the H-1B visa lottery with a wage-based selection system starting as early as the cap season after FY2026, a shift that could reorder who gets to work in the United States 🇺🇸 after earning a degree from an American university. The administration’s proposal, cleared for public comment in August 2025, would end random selection and instead rank filings by offered salary, giving priority to higher-paying roles across four wage bands. The Department of Homeland Security has also signaled tighter specialty-occupation standards and higher costs, including a proposed new $100,000 fee for new H-1B applications.

Together, the changes aim to steer visas toward roles with stronger pay, but critics warn the plan could weaken the college-to-career pipeline that has long kept international talent in the U.S. economy.

How the current system works (and what would change)

Under the current system, employers:

• File registrations and, if selected, submit an H-1B petition using Form I-129 for a “specialty occupation” role.
• Support the petition with a certified Labor Condition Application (ETA-9035) and other documents.
• Rely on an annual cap that is typically met, with the lottery serving as a tie-breaker.

The proposed wage-based selection would:

• Replace the lottery with a ranking of petitions by the wage level of the offered position (based on the Department of Labor’s prevailing wage system).
• Use four wage levels; Level 4 petitions would be prioritized ahead of Level 3, then Level 2, then Level 1.
• Potentially favor employers who can offer top wages quickly, disadvantaging lower-paying institutions such as universities, research labs, early-stage startups, and many non-profits.

Key procedural elements would remain the same: employers still need a certified ETA-9035, file Form I-129 for cap-subject cases during the spring window, and can request premium processing with Form I-907 (which speeds adjudication but would not affect selection priority).

Important link: Official program guidance is available at USCIS: H-1B Specialty Occupations.

Proposed additional changes and costs

• New $100,000 fee proposed for new H-1B applications (on top of existing filing, fraud prevention, and premium processing fees).
• Tighter specialty-occupation definitions, increasing scrutiny of employer-employee relationships and job requirements.
• Discussion of structured options for founders and early-stage companies, but these measures may not offset wage prioritization.

Who stands to gain and who could lose

Supporters say the wage-based model protects U.S. wages and directs visas to high-paying roles in shortage areas. Opponents argue salary is a poor proxy for skill, need, or long-term impact—especially in fields where public benefit is high but pay trails the private sector.

VisaVerge.com notes the proposal lines up with other steps reshaping high-skill hiring and predicts outcomes will likely favor big technology and finance employers while raising barriers for smaller organizations that rely on international graduates.

Impact by group

• International students in academia
  • Postdoc and many research salaries often fall in lower wage bands.
  • H-1B chances for these candidates could drop sharply, pressuring universities to raise salaries they may not be able to afford.
• Early-stage startups
  • Founders and early hires commonly accept lower wages in exchange for equity.
  • Startups may be forced to offer higher wages (and less equity), altering their business model and hiring flexibility.
• Non-profits and public-interest roles
  • Public health labs, policy institutes, and service organizations typically can’t match private-sector salaries.
  • Reduced access to H-1B talent could hamper public-service missions.
• Big tech and large employers
  • Firms with deep pockets can reach higher wage bands and may capture a larger share of visas, concentrating talent.
• University towns and regions
  • Reduced H-1B access for postdocs and researchers could scale back labs, delay projects, and shrink local economies tied to universities.

Effects on the college-to-career pipeline

International students often pay full tuition, support research infrastructure, and expect a predictable path from OPT to H-1B. If a high salary becomes the threshold for H-1B access:

• Some students may choose other countries (Canada 🇨🇦, the U.K., Australia) with more predictable post-study paths.
• Graduate programs—especially in engineering, computer science, biosciences, and economics—could see admissions and lab staffing shifts.
• The U.S. risks a long-term “brain drain” reversal, losing candidates who might have contributed for decades.

Practical examples and timing concerns

• If finalized, the framework could apply as early as the first H-1B cap season after FY2026.
• Example: A master’s student graduating in May 2026, working on OPT, might face the new ranking during their first H-1B window. If their employer offers Level 1 or Level 2 pay, their petition could lag behind higher-offer filings.
• Even with STEM OPT extensions, timing and ranking could create multi-cycle uncertainty for students.

Policy details and legal pathway

The rulemaking process includes:

1. Public comment period (already opened in August 2025).
2. DHS review of feedback.
3. A possible final rule (subject to change, carve-outs, or legal challenges).

Legal challenges are likely, particularly arguments that salary-based ranking stretches statutory authority or disproportionately harms certain sectors.

Suggested adaptations for employers and students

Employers can:

• Raise base pay where budgets allow to reach higher wage bands.
• Consider signing bonuses structured as wages (if permissible under prevailing wage rules).
• Target roles with clearer specialty alignment to strengthen petitions under tightened definitions.
• Plan hiring cycles and wage strategies in advance of any effective date.

Students and applicants can:

• Seek roles closely tied to degree fields to strengthen specialty-occupation claims.
• Consider employers with established H-1B programs and higher pay scales.
• Use OPT and STEM OPT strategically to build qualifying work history.
• Discuss wage bands early in hiring conversations to understand H-1B implications.

Potential mitigations policymakers could consider

To protect research, public interest, and the college-to-career pipeline, policymakers could:

• Create a limited academic and non-profit set-aside with separate ranking rules.
• Allow points for research/public service (published research, patents) to offset lower wages in select roles.
• Protect recent U.S. graduates (e.g., allow filing at any wage level within two years of graduation).
• Phase in wage prioritization over several cycles to reduce budget shocks.

Financial and compliance burdens

• The proposed $100,000 fee would add to existing costs (ETA-9035, Form I-129, potential Form I-907 premium processing).
• Smaller labs and startups may find combined cost and wage pressures practical barriers to filing.
• Employers and universities are already exploring workarounds: salary supplements, fellowships, joint appointments, co-funded industry roles, and international collaborations.

Broader consequences and policy trade-offs

• A wage-only filter could concentrate talent in a handful of firms, reduce diversity of early-career pathways, and slow research progress in fields dependent on postdocs and research staff funded by public grants.
• Over time, where early-career talent lands affects which ideas move from lab to market, which communities gain services, and which regions grow economically.
• The core policy question: should salary alone decide who begins a U.S. career after graduation, or should selection consider a wider view of skill, training, and public good?

Practical checklist while rulemaking continues

• Track DHS rulemaking milestones and the final rule’s retroactive application to cap seasons.
• Confirm prevailing wage levels and budget implications early.
• Document specialty fit thoroughly in Form I-129 packages to meet tightened criteria.
• Use premium processing (Form I-907) for timing (note: it won’t affect selection priority).
• Keep alternative immigration strategies and international partnerships in mind.

Key takeaway:
The administration frames wage-based selection as a market-driven solution to protect U.S. wages and prioritize scarce visas. Universities, startups, and non-profits warn it could thin the college-to-career pipeline and concentrate talent. The final balance will depend on whether policymakers adopt carve-outs (for academia, nonprofits, recent U.S. grads) or phase-in measures that preserve critical early-career pathways.

Officials, employers, and students are watching the process closely. For now, standard filing mechanics remain: a certified ETA-9035, a carefully prepared Form I-129, and, when needed, Form I-907 for premium processing. But the factors that determine who gets selected when demand exceeds supply may soon shift from chance to pay—reshaping career choices, institutional budgets, and the broader U.S. innovation ecosystem.