The H-1B cap will stop being decided by a pure random lottery starting with FY 2027 registrations in March 2027, and it will shift to a New Wage-Based weighted selection model that gives higher-paid jobs better odds. For employers and workers, that means the offered wage—tied to federal wage data for the job and location—will directly shape the chance of winning the H-1B Lottery.
FY 2027: the core change DHS finalized
Under today’s system, USCIS runs the H-1B cap selection as a purely random lottery for 85,000 visas each year: 65,000 in the regular cap and 20,000 under the U.S. master’s advanced degree exemption. Every unique beneficiary registration gets the same chance, regardless of salary level, employer size, job seniority, or work location.
DHS has now finalized a New Wage-Based weighted selection system for FY 2027, with registrations starting March 2027. Instead of treating every registration equally, the system gives a beneficiary multiple “entries” in the selection pool based on the wage level of the job offer. Higher wage levels receive more entries, increasing selection odds, while lower wage levels receive fewer entries.
The change keeps the same overall annual cap totals—65,000 plus 20,000—and it keeps the same yearly registration timing. What changes is the way USCIS ranks chances inside the pool when the number of registrations exceeds the cap, which has been common in recent years.
For FY 2026, the current approach still applies. The cap selection remains a random lottery, so employers filing in the near term are still playing by the old rules while preparing for the new ones.
How the New Wage-Based weighted draw is designed
The old model is simple: one person equals one shot. Even with very large numbers of registrations—often ~300,000+—each unique beneficiary got equal odds, with a historically cited selection rate of ~29.59%.
The New Wage-Based approach keeps the “unique beneficiary” concept but changes the number of chances assigned to that beneficiary. DHS set multipliers tied to wage levels:
- Level IV wage offer: 4x entries
- Level III wage offer: 3x entries
- Level II wage offer: 2x entries
- Level I wage offer: 1x entry
USCIS still uses a lottery mechanism when the pool is oversubscribed. The key difference is that the pool is no longer flat. A Level IV offer effectively places the worker’s registration into the draw four times, while a Level I offer enters once.
This also means the draw becomes less predictable for entry-level roles. Simulations cited in the materials show Level I probability dropping by about 42%, to 15.29%, while higher wage levels take a larger share of selections.
VisaVerge.com reports that the most important practical shift is psychological as well as financial: employers will now weigh whether raising an offer to a higher wage level is worth the added cost because it changes selection odds, not just compliance posture.
Key takeaway: Offered wage now affects the probability of selection, not just the petition stage—so compensation decisions affect lottery outcomes.
| Aspect | Random Lottery (Current) | Wage-Based System (New) |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Method | Purely random – equal chance for all | Weighted by wage level – more entries for higher wages |
| Lottery Entries | 1 entry per beneficiary | Level I: 1 | Level II: 2 | Level III: 3 | Level IV: 4 |
| Selection Probability | ~29.59% for all levels | Level I: ~15% | Level II: ~31% | Level III: ~46% | Level IV: ~61% |
| Level I Change | Equal odds | ↓ 48% decrease |
| Level IV Change | Equal odds | ↑ 107% increase |
| Registration Info | Basic beneficiary details only | Must include OEWS wage level, SOC code, work location |
| Benefits Most | Small businesses, startups, entry-level roles | Large corporations, senior roles, high-cost areas |
| Effective Date | Current (until Feb 26, 2026) | February 27, 2026 (FY 2027) |
Wage levels, OEWS mapping, and the anti-gaming rule
The system depends on federal wage data and clear wage “bands.” Wage levels are occupation- and location-specific, and they follow Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) concepts. The levels are described as:
- Level I: entry-level, ≤34th percentile
- Level II: qualified
- Level III: experienced
- Level IV: fully competent or supervisory
Employers must provide wage details during electronic registration. USCIS then maps the offered salary to the highest OEWS level the offer meets for the role’s occupation code (SOC) and the area(s) of intended employment. A higher mapped level produces a larger multiplier, which produces more entries in the selection pool for that beneficiary.
DHS also built in a guardrail to reduce “gaming” through multiple offers. If a beneficiary has multiple job opportunities or multiple worksites, the system uses the lowest wage level across the registrations tied to that unique beneficiary. This approach aims to stop a scenario where one high-wage registration is used to boost odds when another, lower-wage role is the realistic plan.
The final rule tracks the proposal published September 24, 2025 (RIN 1615-AD01), and the public comment period closed October 24, 2025, with no major changes after comments.
Distribution effects: who benefits and who pays the price
A wage-weighted draw reshapes winners and losers because pay tends to track employer resources, geography, and seniority. Large employers in high-cost labor markets often post offers that map to higher wage levels. They stand to gain because Level III and Level IV offers create more entries in the selection pool.
Entry-level workers and recent international graduates face the opposite math. Many early-career roles map to Level I or Level II, especially when a job is outside the highest-paying metros or in functions that traditionally pay less. Under the weighted model, those registrations receive fewer entries and lose share to higher wage tiers, even when the worker is well-qualified.
Starting FY 2027, H-1B selection shifts from random luck to wage-based weighting. Level IV positions will have 4x better odds than Level I, dramatically changing the game for employers and workers alike.
Small businesses and startups also feel this design pressure. The materials cite ~17,069 small entities filing in FY2024, with an estimated ~$85k in lost labor costs per missed worker. For a small firm, missing one hire can stall product work, delay client delivery, or push revenue targets out by months.
DHS frames the change as a U.S. worker protection measure that favors “highly skilled” roles through higher wages, and it draws from Trump-era merit-based concepts. Critics argue that wages do not always equal skill in a neat way, and that the program’s talent pipeline includes new graduates who grow into senior roles after hiring.
What to do now for FY 2026 filings and FY 2027 planning
The immediate reality is a split timeline:
- FY 2026 — remains under the random lottery (old rules).
- FY 2027 — registration season in March 2027 will use the New Wage-Based weighted selection.
This gives companies one more equal-odds cycle and time to adapt compensation, job design, and hiring strategy.
Practical planning steps for employers and beneficiaries:
- Align internal stakeholders early on the offered wage because the wage level now affects selection odds, not only downstream petition strategy.
- Review job leveling, role responsibilities, and potential locations to identify whether a higher wage band is feasible and cost-justified.
- Consider the trade-off: raising an offer to move from Level I to Level II (or higher) may increase selection odds but adds direct labor cost.
- For roles with flexible duty location or multiple worksites, remember the anti-gaming rule: the lowest wage level across registrations will be used for the beneficiary.
Where a cap-selected worker moves forward to the petition stage, the core H-1B filing remains tied to Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker. The official form and filing details are on USCIS here: Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker. For broader program rules and cap basics, USCIS also maintains an H-1B program overview at: USCIS H-1B Specialty Occupations.
For workers, the shift changes how you read an offer. Title and brand still matter, but wage level, location, and the employer’s willingness to price the role at a higher tier now tie directly to selection probability. That can reshape negotiations, especially for candidates weighing a startup offer against a larger firm in a higher-paying market.
Quick reference: Wage multipliers
| Wage Level | Multiplier (entries) |
|---|---|
| Level I | 1x |
| Level II | 2x |
| Level III | 3x |
| Level IV | 4x |
Final notes and warnings
- Deadline reminder: Registrations for FY 2027 begin March 2027 — plan wage-setting and recruitment timelines accordingly.
- Important: The anti-gaming rule can reduce the benefit of submitting multiple registrations for the same beneficiary if any registration maps to a lower wage level.
- FY 2026 filings still use the random lottery — immediate filings are unaffected but future strategy must adapt.
Important: Employers and candidates should reassess compensation strategy and negotiation approaches given that wage now directly affects lottery odds, not just downstream petition outcomes.
The H-1B visa selection process is evolving from a random lottery to a wage-weighted system for the FY 2027 season. By granting more entries to higher-paid roles (Level IV), DHS aims to prioritize highly skilled talent. Conversely, entry-level positions (Level I) will see a sharp decline in selection probability. Employers must now integrate compensation levels into their lottery strategy to secure foreign talent.
