February 2026 Visa Bulletin Predictions: Complete Analysis and Forecast

The U.S. Department of State is expected to release the February 2026 Visa Bulletin in early January 2026. Based on comprehensive analysis of the December 2025 and January 2026 bulletins, this article provides data-driven predictions for priority date movements across all employment-based and family-sponsored categories.

Our analysis reveals significant forward movement across most employment-based categories, with particularly notable advancement in EB-1 India, steady progress in EB-2 and EB-3 for backlogged countries, and continued favorable conditions for Rest of World applicants.

Employment-Based Final Action Dates Analysis

The January 2026 bulletin showed positive momentum across employment-based categories. By calculating the exact day differences between December 2025 and January 2026 cutoff dates, we can project where February 2026 dates are likely to land.

The methodology is straightforward: we measure the movement velocity (days advanced per month) and apply that rate to predict the next month. Categories with consistent historical patterns receive higher confidence ratings, while volatile categories like EB-1 India receive more cautious projections.

The Dates for Filing chart, which determines when applicants can submit their adjustment of status applications (when USCIS allows its use), showed mixed movement. Some categories remained static while others advanced significantly. Check USCIS.gov/visabulletininfo each month to confirm whether the Dates for Filing chart applies.

India Employment-Based Categories

India remains the most backlogged country for employment-based immigration, with wait times spanning over a decade for EB-2 and EB-3 categories. However, recent bulletins show encouraging forward movement that suggests the State Department is working to reduce the backlog.

EB-2 India Analysis

The EB-2 India category demonstrated consistent advancement between December 2025 and January 2026. The Final Action Date moved from May 15, 2013 to July 15, 2013—a 61-day advancement representing approximately 2 months of priority date progression per calendar month.

This 2:1 velocity ratio is significant. If maintained, applicants with 2013 priority dates should see their dates become current within the first half of 2026. For those with priority dates in 2014, final action could occur by late 2026 or early 2027.

The consistency of this movement pattern gives us high confidence (80%) in our February 2026 prediction. The State Department appears to have established a steady processing rhythm for this category.

EB-3 India Analysis

EB-3 India showed slightly slower but still healthy advancement, moving from September 22, 2013 to November 15, 2013—a 54-day gain. The velocity ratio of approximately 1.8:1 indicates the category is progressing at a meaningful pace.

What’s particularly notable is the narrowing gap between EB-2 and EB-3 India. With EB-3 now only about 8 months behind EB-2, the traditional strategy of “upgrading” from EB-3 to EB-2 requires more careful analysis. The benefit of such a switch has diminished considerably, and for some applicants, remaining in EB-3 may be equally advantageous.

EB-1 India Analysis

The most dramatic movement occurred in EB-1 India, which leaped from March 15, 2022 to February 1, 2023—an extraordinary 322-day (nearly 11-month) advancement in a single bulletin. This brought EB-1 India into alignment with EB-1 China at the same cutoff date.

Such large jumps typically don’t repeat consecutively. They often indicate either a temporary surplus of visa numbers or a correction after a period of stagnation. While the trajectory is positive, applicants should temper expectations for February. We predict moderate continued advancement but with lower confidence (60%) due to the category’s inherent volatility.

The good news is that EB-1 India applicants with 2022 and early 2023 priority dates are now within striking distance of approval, a significant improvement from the multi-year waits previously anticipated.

China Employment-Based Categories

China-mainland born applicants face their own set of backlogs, though generally less severe than India for EB-2 and EB-3 categories. The EB-5 investor visa category, however, has a substantial backlog specific to Chinese applicants.

EB-2 China

EB-2 China showed excellent advancement, moving from June 1, 2021 to September 1, 2021—a 92-day (3-month) gain. This 3:1 velocity ratio is among the best we’ve observed, suggesting strong visa number availability and efficient processing.

At this pace, applicants with late 2021 priority dates could see their dates become current within the next few months. The outlook for EB-2 China remains positive heading into February.

EB-3 China

EB-3 China advanced more modestly, from April 1, 2021 to May 1, 2021—a 30-day movement. While slower than EB-2, this represents steady progress. The 1:1 velocity ratio suggests stable, predictable advancement that should continue into February.

EB-5 China Unreserved

The traditional EB-5 unreserved category for China continues its slow march forward, moving from July 15, 2016 to August 15, 2016. Chinese investors waiting for unreserved EB-5 visas face a decade-long backlog.

However, the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 created set-aside categories (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure) that remain Current for all countries including China. Chinese investors exploring new EB-5 investments should strongly consider these set-aside categories to avoid the lengthy unreserved backlog.

Rest of World (All Other Chargeability Areas)

Applicants born in countries other than India, China, Mexico, and the Philippines continue to enjoy favorable conditions across most employment-based categories.

EB-1 remains Current with no signs of retrogression, meaning qualified applicants can file immediately regardless of priority date. EB-2 advanced from February 1, 2024 to April 1, 2024, putting it within reach of becoming Current if movement continues. EB-3 showed minimal but positive movement.

All EB-5 categories remain Current for Rest of World applicants, including the unreserved category. This represents an excellent opportunity for qualified investors from non-backlogged countries.

Family-Sponsored Preference Categories

Family-based categories showed mixed results in the January 2026 bulletin, with Mexico and Philippines experiencing the most significant movement while “All Other” categories remained largely static.

Notable Movements

F1 Mexico (unmarried adult children of U.S. citizens) jumped 6 months, advancing from March 1, 2006 to September 1, 2006. Similarly, F2B Mexico moved 6 months from May 15, 2008 to November 15, 2008. These substantial advances suggest the State Department is working to address the severe backlogs affecting Mexican family-sponsored applicants.

Philippines also saw healthy advancement across multiple categories, with F3 moving 4 months and F2B advancing approximately 2.5 months.

Static Categories

Most “All Other” family categories remained unchanged, indicating that demand roughly matches available visa numbers for non-backlogged countries. F2A (spouses and children of permanent residents) stayed at February 1, 2024 for all countries except Mexico, which held at February 1, 2023.

Diversity Visa (DV-2026) Program

The January 2026 bulletin already published the February 2026 cut-off numbers for the DV-2026 program, so these are confirmed rather than predicted.

Africa will see the largest jump, with the cut-off rising from 35,000 to 45,000. Asia increases significantly from 15,000 to 30,000. Europe moves to 11,000. The Nepal exception remains restrictive at 6,500, reflecting the high number of selectees from that country.

DV-2026 entitlement expires on September 30, 2026, and numbers could be exhausted before that date. Selectees should complete their processing as quickly as possible rather than assuming visa availability will continue through the end of the fiscal year.

Special Regulatory Notes for February 2026

Several important regulatory matters may affect February 2026 applicants.

Key Considerations

Fiscal Year Progress: FY2026 is now approximately one-third complete (October 2025 through January 2026). Visa number availability remains strong, but applicants should monitor for any signs of increased usage that could affect later months.

Per-Country Limits: The statutory 7% per-country limit (25,620 visas annually) continues to constrain India, China, Mexico, and Philippines. Legislative efforts to eliminate or raise these limits have not succeeded, meaning backlogs will persist under current law.

USCIS Processing: Each month, USCIS determines whether adjustment of status applicants may use the Dates for Filing chart or must use the Final Action Dates chart. Always verify at USCIS.gov/visabulletininfo before filing.

NACARA Offset: The Employment Third Preference Other Workers (EW) category remains limited to approximately 5,000 numbers annually (minus approximately 150 for NACARA offsets), contributing to the backlog in this category.

Complete Predicted February 2026 Bulletin

Based on our analysis, here are the complete predicted Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing for the February 2026 Visa Bulletin. These predictions use linear projection from observed December-to-January movement, with adjustments for categories showing unusual volatility.

Risk Assessment and Confidence Levels

Not all predictions carry equal certainty. Categories with consistent historical patterns receive higher confidence ratings, while those showing erratic movement or exceptional recent gains receive lower ratings.

High confidence predictions (75-95%) are those where we observed steady, predictable movement patterns. Medium confidence (60-74%) applies to categories with moderate variability. Low confidence (below 60%) indicates high volatility where actual results could differ significantly from predictions.

Retrogression risk—the possibility that dates move backward—is generally low for most categories heading into February. However, EB-1 India and EB-5 India Unreserved warrant caution due to their recent exceptional jumps, which may not be sustainable.

Actionable Recommendations by Priority Date

Based on our February 2026 predictions, here is strategic guidance for applicants in various priority date ranges.

EB-2 India Applicants

Priority Dates 2013-2014: Your wait is nearly over. Begin preparing all required documentation immediately, including completing medical examinations (Form I-693, valid for 2 years), gathering civil documents (birth certificates, marriage certificates, police clearances), and ensuring your I-140 remains approved and valid. Final action should occur within 6-12 months at current movement rates.

Priority Dates 2015-2018: You are now in the preparation zone. Monitor monthly bulletins closely and begin gathering documents. Consider whether an EB-2 to EB-3 downgrade makes sense given the narrowing gap between categories. Maintain valid work authorization and stable employment.

Priority Dates 2019-2024: Extended waits of 5-10+ years remain likely under current movement patterns. Consider exploring EB-1 eligibility if your qualifications permit (extraordinary ability, outstanding professors/researchers, or multinational managers). International alternatives such as Canada Express Entry, Australia skilled migration, or Germany’s EU Blue Card may offer faster pathways to permanent residency. Keep your I-140 active and consider premium processing if not already done.

EB-3 India Applicants

Priority Dates 2013-2014: Similar to EB-2—prepare documentation now. The EB-3 and EB-2 dates have nearly converged, meaning your timeline is comparable to EB-2 applicants with similar dates.

China Applicants

EB-2 (September 2021 cutoff): Applicants with 2021 priority dates should begin active preparation.

EB-3 (May 2021 cutoff): Similar timeline to EB-2; gather documentation.

EB-5: The unreserved category moves slowly. New investors should strongly consider the set-aside categories (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure), all of which remain Current and offer immediate filing opportunities.

Rest of World Applicants

EB-1: Remains Current—file immediately if eligible.

EB-2: Applicants with early 2024 priority dates should prepare for potential final action within months.

EB-3: Prepare if your priority date is before April 2023.

EB-5: All categories remain Current. This represents an excellent window for qualified investors.

Methodology

This analysis uses the following methodology:

Data Sources: December 2025 Visa Bulletin (Volume XI, Number 9, published November 3, 2025) and January 2026 Visa Bulletin (Volume XI, Number 10, published December 2, 2025).

Primary Method: Linear projection assuming movement continues at the observed December-to-January rate. For each category and country, we calculate the exact number of days between cutoff dates and apply that same advancement to predict February.

Adjustments: Categories showing exceptional movement (such as EB-1 India’s 322-day jump) receive dampened projections acknowledging that such gains rarely repeat consecutively. Categories showing zero movement are projected to remain static unless historical patterns suggest otherwise.

Confidence Ratings: Based on historical pattern consistency. Steady movers receive 75-95% confidence. Variable categories receive 50-74%. Volatile categories receive below 50%.

Range Estimates: High confidence predictions carry a ±15 day range. Medium confidence carries ±30 days. Low confidence carries ±60 days.

Limitations: These predictions are based on only two consecutive bulletins and cannot account for policy changes, legislative actions, unusual demand spikes, or State Department operational decisions. End-of-fiscal-year periods (August-September) often see unpredictable behavior not reflected in mid-year patterns.

Disclaimer

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Visa bulletin predictions are inherently uncertain, and actual State Department decisions may differ significantly from projections. Individual circumstances vary, and applicants should consult with a qualified immigration attorney before making decisions based on predicted visa bulletin dates.

The official February 2026 Visa Bulletin will be published by the U.S. Department of State, typically in early January 2026. Always verify information at travel.state.gov and uscis.gov before taking action.

Analysis based on December 2025 and January 2026 Visa Bulletins. Predictions subject to change based on State Department decisions.