(INDIA) A sharp mid‑year shift in U.S. student visa numbers is unsettling families, agents, and universities. In the first half of FY2025, F‑1 visas for Indian nationals fell steeply, while Pakistan posted strong growth.
Analysts say the pattern reflects processing changes and demand shifts, not favoritism. Still, the effects are real for students planning fall 2025 starts in the United States 🇺🇸.
What the latest numbers show
Sector analysts who reviewed the U.S. Department of State’s monthly issuance tables report the following for October 2024–March 2025 (H1 FY2025):
- Nearly 89,000 F‑1 visas issued globally, down about 15% year over year.
- India: down about 44% to roughly 14,700 F‑1 visas.
- China: down about 24% to roughly 11,000.
- Pakistan: up about 44.3% year over year.
- Other growth countries: Zimbabwe +162%, Vietnam +20%, Bangladesh +20.1%, Colombia +22.8%, Saudi Arabia +6.8%.
These figures, reported widely in July 2025 by ApplyBoard and higher‑education media, align with State Department monthly issuance patterns for H1 FY2025. Education outlets called the trends “seriously concerning,” warning of possible further declines into late spring as interview slots tightened.
Is the U.S. favoring Pakistan over India?
Short answer: There is no U.S. policy that favors Pakistani students over Indian students for F‑1 visas. The numbers show issuances, not an official preference.
- No policy pronouncement in 2024–2025 from the White House, the State Department, or DHS favors one country’s applicants over another.
- Analysts point to operations (interview capacity, screening steps, staffing) and demand changes as the primary drivers.
- The rise for Pakistan and the drop for India occur alongside mixed results for other countries, which fits an operational and demand story rather than a diplomatic directive.
For political context, neither President Biden nor President Trump has issued a public statement directing consular posts to favor Pakistan over India for student visas in 2025. Reporting instead links this year’s swings to process limits at certain embassies and consulates.
Important takeaway: issuance shifts reflect operational realities and applicant behavior more than a change in U.S. visa policy.
What’s happening at consulates
Experts and campus recruiters cite several operational factors this year:
- Appointment limits or pauses in May–June 2025 at several locations, reducing interview volume during a critical period.
- Expanded social‑media screening reported from May–June 2025, which lengthened checks and slowed issuances.
- Longer processing times and staffing constraints at specific posts.
- Shifting demand, with some students delaying plans or choosing other study destinations.
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, these factors hit India’s large applicant pool harder because any short pause or extra screening scales up quickly when millions of students target summer interview windows.
Why Indian students are feeling it most
India has been a leading source of U.S. international students since the post‑pandemic rebound. That success creates a downside when capacity tightens:
- Large cohorts require interview slots within a short time frame.
- Any pause creates backlogs that roll into subsequent months.
- Students with tight admissions and housing timelines can’t always wait.
Many families report rescheduling to later intakes or keeping backup plans in other countries. Recruiters say the 2025 cycle has more students hedging offers and asking for January or fall 2026 starts if interviews slip.
What the Pakistan increase means
The +44.3% year‑over‑year rise for Pakistan in H1 FY2025 signals stronger throughput and likely higher demand, but absolute numbers remain smaller than India’s. The growth may reflect:
- More consistent appointment availability at certain posts.
- Steady pipelines to U.S. universities in fields like STEM and business.
- Students shifting choices among destination countries based on cost, visa timing, and campus offers.
Universities welcome the diversification but warn against reading the rise as a policy favor. Rather, it shows how supply (slots) and demand (applicants) interact at each post.
Data corrections add caution
On July 2, 2025, the Department of Homeland Security republished corrected SEVIS enrollment data for 2024 after errors were found. The fix confirmed 2024 growth but pointed to mixed trends ahead.
Key points to consider:
- A student with an issued visa may defer or never enroll.
- Some who enroll may have been counted earlier in another dataset.
- Corrections can change the year‑over‑year picture later.
In short, the −15% global issuance drop in H1 FY2025 and India’s −44% should be read with care. Final fall 2025 campus numbers may not match the issuance dip exactly.
Practical guidance for Indian and Pakistani students
If you plan to apply for F‑1 visas in the next two months, follow these steps:
- Book the earliest interview slot you can find and monitor for earlier openings—cancellations appear at random times.
- Prepare for possible social‑media checks. Keep account names consistent with your application and remove false or confusing details.
- Keep university paperwork current. Late updates can trigger extra questions or screening.
- Have a backup intake (January) or a backup campus ready if your interview moves past your reporting date.
- Ask your university about remote start or late arrival policies if you face delays.
For official monthly issuance tables by country, check the U.S. Department of State’s Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics page: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html
What universities and agents should do now
- Encourage earlier I‑20 issuance and quick slot booking to spread interview demand across months.
- Offer deferral and deposit‑carry options to reduce stress for students facing late interviews.
- Expand recruitment beyond a few cities to smooth local bottlenecks.
- Provide clear pre‑arrival checklists that anticipate screening and proof‑of‑funds questions.
Campus leaders should also prepare for a more geographically diverse class if India’s numbers remain down while countries like Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Colombia continue to grow.
Open questions
- Will appointment capacity improve enough in July–August to recover part of the spring shortfall?
- How will corrected SEVIS data for 2024 reshape expectations for 2025/26 enrollments?
- Will new screening steps become standard, or will posts return to 2023 timelines?
Until those answers are clear, treat spring data as a warning sign, not a final outcome.
Bottom line for families
- No evidence of a U.S. policy favoring Pakistan over India in student visa decisions.
- India’s −44% and Pakistan’s +44.3% shifts in H1 FY2025 reflect a mix of interview capacity, screening, and demand.
- Students who act early, stay flexible on intake, and keep documents clean stand the best chance in a tight year.
If you need help comparing timing at different posts or choosing between fall and spring starts, speak with your university’s international office and trusted local advisors. Keep your plans steady—but build in extra time.
This Article in a Nutshell
A surprising mid‑year shift cut F‑1 issuances in H1 FY2025, hitting India hardest while Pakistan grew. Operational limits—appointment pauses, social‑media checks, staffing—explain swings more than policy. Students should book early, prepare documents, consider backup intakes, and consult campus international offices to manage potential fall 2025 disruptions.
