Thanksgiving flights in 2025 face the highest risk of widespread delays and cancellations in years as the U.S. government shutdown drags into November, prompting warnings from airlines, federal officials, and union leaders that the holiday rush could buckle under strained operations. With travel peaking on Wednesday, November 26, and Sunday, November 30, carriers and airport managers say even routine hiccups could cascade into day‑long snarls affecting millions of passengers nationwide.
Why the system is strained
At the center of the trouble is the shutdown’s direct hit to FAA staffing and airport security. The Federal Aviation Administration has restricted how many flights airlines can operate to match reduced capacity in the national airspace system, while both air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers are working without pay.
As attrition and fatigue grow, some facilities have reported shortages and slower throughput.
“I can’t even begin to predict what the impacts will be across this country. Three-hour TSA wait lines will be the least of our worries,” — Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association.
Lawmakers have sharpened their tone as the calendar nears the holiday. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer warned that “airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year” if funding is not restored soon.
Current disruption: data and trends
The strain is already visible on departure boards. On October 13, there were 8,236 flight delays nationwide, with airline shares as follows:
- Southwest Airlines: 1,560 delays (~35% of its schedule)
- American Airlines: 1,054 delays (~29%)
- Delta: 895 delays (~25%)
- United: 781 delays (~26%)
- JetBlue: 370 delays (~43%)
By early November, a trade group for major U.S. carriers said 3.5 million travelers had been affected by delays or cancellations since the shutdown began. Those figures continue to shift daily but create a powerful backdrop as airlines brace for the year’s busiest week.
Thanksgiving travel demand
Thanksgiving demand is rising:
- Airlines expect a 2.2% increase in bookings compared with last year.
- Carriers have added about 250,000 seats to match demand, even as schedules are pruned at key hubs.
- Industry planners expect a record 31 million passengers to fly for Thanksgiving 2025.
This surge heightens the risk: with airport systems already near capacity on normal days, any cut in available airspace routes or staffing will ripple quickly through the network.
FAA actions and potential cancellations
The FAA has ordered flight reductions at dozens of major hubs to relieve pressure on air traffic facilities. By late next week, one in ten flights at these airports could be canceled if the government shutdown continues, potentially shutting down thousands of daily departures.
Representative Lisa McClain warned the holiday could see “planes grounded and chaos at terminals” without swift action to reopen agencies.
Margaret Warren, an air traffic control professor at Embry‑Riddle Aeronautical University, said airlines will try to spread demand but warned supply limits will bite:
“They may move some flights to not-so-peak times. And some [flights] are just going to have to not exist for awhile.”
Airline and industry response
Carriers have been vocal about the need for stability.
- Airlines for America: “We implore Congress to act with extreme urgency to get the federal government reopened.”
- Operational teams are balancing crew duty limits, constrained airport slots, and airspace restrictions, leaving fewer options to absorb weather or mechanical delays.
- Analysis by VisaVerge.com notes that prolonged funding gaps historically reduce training pipelines for new controllers, slowing recovery even after appropriations return—especially at busy approach control facilities.
How travelers are adjusting
Many passengers are already changing plans to reduce risk:
- Choosing nonstop routes to avoid misconnects.
- Selecting longer layovers to build buffer time.
- Shifting trips away from the busiest days (especially Sunday, November 30) toward midweek returns.
- Taking advantage of flexible travel waivers issued by airlines in several markets, allowing changes without fees when seats are available.
Airport managers advise:
- Arrive early and pack patience.
- Expect TSA lines of up to three hours during peak bursts; longer screening times are likely if absenteeism rises.
Weather: the additional risk factor
Weather remains a wildcard. Early winter systems in the Midwest and Northeast could magnify delays as crews hit duty limits and planes wait longer for de‑icing.
- In normal years, airlines can reroute and backfill; this season, thinner schedules at hubs and limited staffing may make workarounds slower.
- That could push delays deeper into the day and carry them into subsequent days.
Impact on travelers and rebooking challenges
Behind the numbers are families, students, and workers trying to reunite. Airports serving large immigrant communities report more calls from travelers with international connections—missed domestic legs can mean missed long‑haul flights, and rebooking overseas in late November is notoriously difficult.
Agents recommend:
- Keep a close eye on airline notifications and app updates.
- Expect last‑minute schedule changes to be more common during constrained operations.
Official guidance and tools
Federal officials emphasize that safety remains the top priority, and the FAA will slow or stop departures whenever staffing levels require it.
Real‑time notices and status updates are available through the Federal Aviation Administration: https://www.faa.gov, which also posts advisories when weather or volume triggers nationwide ground delay programs.
While these tools can help set expectations, managers caution that day‑of bottlenecks are still likely because even small slowdowns can swell quickly under holiday loads.
Planning scenarios and operational priorities
The political path forward is uncertain. Airlines are planning for both outcomes:
- A late funding deal that allows a partial rebound before Thanksgiving weekend.
- A continued shutdown that forces deeper cuts.
If the shutdown continues, operational leaders say they will:
- Prioritize safety‑critical flights.
- Allocate scarce resources to peak flows where possible.
Even with prioritization, many passengers could face delays, missed connections, and cancellations. As a senior operations manager said, the goal is to “make sure the pain is spread as fairly as possible while keeping the system safe.”
Practical advice for travelers (key takeaways)
- Build extra time into every step of your trip.
- Check flight status early and often.
- Consider moving travel off peak days if schedules allow.
- Prepare for lines, even at usually smooth airports.
- Use airline apps and notifications for real‑time updates.
- Consider longer layovers or nonstop options to reduce the risk of missed connections.
“Long waits at security may end up feeling like the least of the problems” if controller staffing slips further, Nick Daniels warned.
In a week built around family meals and packed tables, the country’s ability to keep planes flying on time may depend on a funding breakthrough that has not yet arrived.
This Article in a Nutshell
The 2025 Thanksgiving travel period faces high risk of widespread delays and cancellations as the government shutdown reduces FAA and TSA staffing. Travel peaks on November 26 and 30, and the FAA has ordered flight reductions at major hubs; one in ten flights could be canceled if the shutdown continues. Airlines report millions affected and have added seats, but thinner schedules and staffing limits raise the chance that routine disruptions will cascade. Travelers should arrive early, monitor apps, choose nonstop or longer layovers, and prepare for longer TSA lines.
