Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market to Reach USD 106.52 Billion by 2034

Key Takeaways

• Global SAF market may grow from $2.06 billion in 2025 to $134.57 billion by 2034, CAGR 57.3–65.5%.
• EU and UK enforce SAF blending mandates from 2% in 2025, rising to 70% by 2050; US boosts production with incentives.
• SAF production meets only 0.7% of demand in 2025, risking a 26 million-tonne shortfall by 2035 without scaling.

The global push for decarbonizing aviation has placed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at the center of industry, regulatory, and environmental discussions. This analytical content examines the current state, drivers, and future outlook of the SAF market, focusing on recent policy changes, market growth, and the practical implications for airlines, fuel suppliers, and regulators. The analysis draws on the latest data and official statements to provide a clear, evidence-based overview for stakeholders seeking to understand the evolving SAF landscape.

Purpose and Scope

This analysis aims to:

• Present the latest market data and projections for sustainable aviation fuel, including growth rates and regional trends.
• Explain the impact of new mandates in the European Union 🇪🇺, United Kingdom, United States 🇺🇸, and other regions.
• Assess the practical challenges and opportunities for airlines, fuel producers, and policymakers.
• Offer a balanced view of the environmental, economic, and regulatory factors shaping the SAF market.
• Highlight key limitations and areas where further action is needed.

Methodology

The content is based on a review of recent market reports (May–June 2025), official policy documents, and statements from industry leaders. Quantitative data is presented in tables and described visually for clarity. Comparisons are made across regions and over time to identify trends and patterns. The analysis also incorporates perspectives from airlines, producers, and regulators, as well as environmental considerations.

Key Findings

• Explosive Market Growth: The global SAF market is projected to grow from about USD 2.06–2.25 billion in 2025 to as much as USD 134.57 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 57.3% and 65.5%.
• Mandates Drive Demand: The European Union 🇪🇺 and United Kingdom have implemented binding SAF blending mandates, starting at 2% in 2025 and rising sharply through 2050. The United States 🇺🇸 and Canada 🇨🇦 are investing heavily in SAF production, supported by tax incentives.
• Production Lags Demand: Despite rapid growth, SAF production in 2025 meets only 0.7% of global aviation fuel needs. A supply gap of 26 million tonnes is projected by 2035 if capacity does not increase.
• Cost Pressures: SAF is currently five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel in Europe, mainly due to compliance fees and feedstock limitations.
• Environmental Benefits: SAF can reduce lifecycle CO₂ emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional jet fuel, but true sustainability depends on feedstock sourcing and production methods.

Data Presentation and Visual Descriptions

Global SAF Market Growth (2024–2034)

Imagine a line graph showing a steep upward curve, starting at around USD 1.5 billion in 2024, doubling to over USD 2 billion in 2025, and then rising sharply to USD 25.62 billion by 2030. By 2034, the line peaks at USD 134.57 billion, reflecting the projected CAGR of 57.3% to 65.5%. This visual demonstrates the market’s rapid expansion, driven by regulatory mandates and airline commitments.

Table: Key SAF Market Data

Regional Comparisons

• European Union 🇪🇺: The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, effective January 2025, requires a 2% SAF blend, increasing to 70% by 2050. Synthetic fuel targets are also set, starting at 0.7% in 2030 and reaching 35% by 2050.
• United Kingdom: The UK SAF mandate also began in January 2025, with a 2% blend, rising to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040. Suppliers must show greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and can earn tradable certificates.
• United States 🇺🇸: The U.S. is the largest SAF market, valued at USD 450.41 million in 2024 and projected to reach USD 43.17 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 57.82%. Federal incentives and funding support rapid growth.
• Asia-Pacific: The region is expected to grow at over 60% CAGR, the fastest globally, with countries like the UAE and Australia setting ambitious targets.

Volume and Supply Gap

A bar chart would show SAF volumes doubling from 1 million tonnes in 2024 to 2 million tonnes in 2025. However, when compared to total aviation fuel demand, this is just a thin slice—only 0.7%. By 2035, global demand could reach 40 million tonnes, but supply is projected to fall short by 26 million tonnes unless production ramps up.

Comparisons, Trends, and Patterns

• Mandates vs. Market Growth: Regions with binding mandates (EU, UK) are seeing the fastest SAF adoption, but also the highest costs. North America’s growth is driven more by incentives and investment than by mandates.
• Feedstock and Technology: Most current SAF is produced using HEFA technology, which relies on limited feedstocks like used cooking oil and animal fats. Diversification into new pathways (Fischer-Tropsch, Alcohol-to-Jet, synthetic fuels) is needed to meet future demand.
• Cost Trends: SAF prices remain much higher than conventional jet fuel, especially in Europe. Airlines face significant cost pressures, which could slow adoption if not addressed by policy support.

Evidence-Based Conclusions

• SAF is Essential for Decarbonization: Airlines and regulators agree that SAF is the most practical way to cut aviation emissions in the near term. It can be used in existing aircraft and infrastructure, allowing for immediate impact.
• Mandates Are Effective but Costly: Blending mandates are driving demand and investment, but without additional financial support, high costs could limit adoption, especially for smaller airlines.
• Production Must Scale Up: To close the projected supply gap, the industry needs more investment in new technologies and feedstock sources. Without this, decarbonization targets may not be met.
• Environmental Impact Depends on Feedstock: While SAF can cut emissions by up to 80%, the actual benefit depends on how and where it is produced. Transparency and sustainability standards are critical.

Limitations

• Data Uncertainty: Market size estimates and growth rates vary by source, reflecting uncertainty about future policy, technology, and investment.
• Feedstock Constraints: The reliance on a narrow range of feedstocks limits current production and could slow future growth.
• Cost Barriers: High prices, especially in regions with strict mandates, may limit adoption unless offset by subsidies or other support.
• Regional Differences: The pace of SAF adoption varies widely by region, depending on policy, market size, and available resources.

Step-by-Step SAF Compliance in the UK/EU

1. Supplier Registration: SAF suppliers must register with the UK Department for Transport or the relevant EU authority.
2. GHG Criteria: Only SAF achieving at least 40% GHG reduction (UK) or meeting the EU’s sustainability criteria is eligible.
3. Documentation: Suppliers must provide evidence of SAF supplied and GHG reductions.
4. Certificates: Renewable Transport Fuel Certificates (UK) or equivalent (EU) are awarded based on volume and emissions reductions. These can be traded or used for compliance.
5. Reporting and Auditing: Suppliers submit annual reports and undergo audits to verify compliance.

For more details on the EU’s SAF regulations, visit the European Commission’s ReFuelEU Aviation page.

Stakeholder Perspectives

• Industry: SAF is seen as the cornerstone of aviation’s climate strategy. However, industry leaders like Maarten van Dijk (SkyNRG) stress the need for strong policy frameworks and support for technology and infrastructure to keep growth on track.
• Airlines: Over 60 airlines, including Delta, United, and Lufthansa, have set SAF targets for 2030 and aim for net-zero emissions by 2050. However, high costs and supply shortages are major concerns.
• Regulators: Policymakers are pushing aggressive mandates to accelerate adoption but face criticism for not providing enough financial support to offset compliance costs.
• Environmental Groups: SAF offers significant emissions reductions, but only if produced sustainably. Feedstock sourcing, land use, and supply chain transparency are key issues.

Historical Context

• Early 2010s: SAF development began with pilot projects and test flights.
• 2020s: Airlines and governments set net-zero targets for 2050, making SAF a strategic priority.
• 2023–2025: The European Union 🇪🇺 and United Kingdom implement binding SAF mandates, triggering a surge in investment and production.
• 2024–2025: SAF volumes double year-on-year, but production remains a small fraction of total aviation fuel use.

Future Outlook

• Market Expansion: The SAF market is expected to reach USD 134.57 billion by 2034, with Asia-Pacific leading growth at over 60% CAGR.
• Technology Shift: The industry must move beyond HEFA to alternative production methods to meet demand and address feedstock constraints.
• Policy Evolution: Further policy changes are likely, especially to address cost barriers and encourage new production capacity.
• Supply Gap Risk: Without accelerated investment and policy support, a significant supply gap could undermine decarbonization targets.

Practical Guidance for Stakeholders

• Airlines: Plan for higher fuel costs in the short term, especially in regions with strict mandates. Engage with suppliers early to secure SAF volumes and consider participating in certificate trading schemes.
• Suppliers: Invest in new technologies and diversify feedstock sources to meet growing demand and regulatory requirements.
• Policymakers: Balance ambitious mandates with financial support to ensure adoption does not stall due to high costs.
• Investors: Look for opportunities in regions with strong policy support and growing demand, especially in Asia-Pacific and North America.

Official Contacts and Resources

• European Commission (ReFuelEU Aviation): [email protected]
• UK Department for Transport (SAF Mandate): [email protected]
• IATA (International Air Transport Association): www.iata.org
• SkyNRG (Market Outlook): [email protected]
• U.S. Department of Energy (SAF Initiatives): www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuel

Summary Table: Regional SAF Market Data

Conclusion

The sustainable aviation fuel market stands at a turning point. Rapid growth, driven by regulatory mandates and airline commitments, is transforming the industry. However, production capacity remains far below projected demand, and high costs—especially in the European Union 🇪🇺—pose real challenges. Feedstock limitations and technology bottlenecks threaten supply security. According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, robust policy support, investment in new technologies, and global coordination are essential to close the supply gap and achieve aviation’s net-zero ambitions by 2050. Stakeholders must act now to ensure that SAF fulfills its promise as the cornerstone of sustainable aviation.

For more information on SAF regulations and compliance, visit the European Commission’s official ReFuelEU Aviation page.

Actionable Takeaways:
– Airlines and suppliers should prepare for stricter mandates and higher costs, especially in Europe.
– Investment in new technologies and feedstocks is critical to meeting future demand.
– Policymakers must balance ambitious targets with financial support to ensure market growth.
– Stakeholders should monitor regional developments, as Asia-Pacific and North America are set to lead future expansion.

By staying informed and proactive, all parties can help shape a sustainable future for global aviation.

Learn Today

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) → Jet fuel derived from renewable sources reducing carbon emissions compared to traditional fossil fuels.
CAGR → Compound Annual Growth Rate; average yearly growth percentage over a specific time period.
Blending Mandate → A regulatory requirement to mix a certain percentage of SAF with conventional jet fuel.
Feedstock → Raw materials, like used cooking oil or animal fats, used to produce sustainable aviation fuel.
ReFuelEU Aviation → EU regulation mandating SAF use in aviation starting at 2% in 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050.

This Article in a Nutshell

Sustainable aviation fuel is essential for aviation’s decarbonization but faces cost and supply challenges. Regulatory mandates fuel growth, yet production lags demand. Increasing technology investment and policy support are crucial. The global SAF market is set to expand dramatically, reshaping aviation’s environmental and economic future by 2034.
— By VisaVerge.com