Mary Schiavo Warns Shutdown Erodes Critical Aviation Safety Margins

(UNITED STATES) Aviation safety leaders warned on Friday that the government shutdown is eroding the safety net that protects U.S. airspace, with pressure building across air traffic control facilities and airlines cutting schedules to cope. National Transportation Safety Board Chairperson Jennifer Homendy said “pressures are building in the system,” while National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels cautioned that “every single day that this goes on, tomorrow is now less safe than today.” Their message was stark: as the shutdown continues, core safety margins and redundancies that keep passengers safe are wearing thin, and the people who manage the skies are facing mounting fatigue, stress, and gaps in staffing that compound by the day.

How the safety system is designed to work

Aviation safety experts describe a multi-layered defense that is designed to catch problems before they turn into tragedies. Ohio University’s Chad Mourning framed this as a system of layers—staffing, rest, training, equipment, and operational slack—that work together to prevent mistakes from aligning.

“Risk is incremental,” Mourning said, adding that major airline crashes are exceedingly rare, “so even one is going to spook people.”

Removing even one layer—such as adequate staffing or rest—raises the chance that routine strain becomes real danger. As the shutdown stretches on, that picture is emerging: controllers spread thin, training pipelines halted, and airlines trimming flights to keep operations stable.

The immediate pinch point: people

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which oversees air traffic control, is already short by roughly 3,000 controllers from its target staffing level, and more than 90% of towers are understaffed. Those gaps preceded the shutdown, but the stoppage has worsened them.

• Controllers are working without pay.
• Some are taking sick leave or juggling side jobs to cover bills.
• Others are simply exhausted.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the strain of unpaid work combined with thin staffing has widened day-to-day variability at facilities that can’t afford to lose even a handful of certified professionals.

Operational response: traffic reductions and schedule cuts

To keep planes moving safely with fewer certified eyes on the scopes, the FAA has ordered a 10% reduction in air traffic across 40 high-volume markets. This reflects the tradeoffs that come when staffing shortages collide with demand.

• The reduction is expected to eliminate thousands of flights daily for as long as the shutdown lasts.
• Fewer takeoffs and landings reduce chances for missed readbacks, mixed call signs, or spacing errors.

For airlines, the pressure extends to the cockpit and schedules. Carriers are tapping reserve pilots earlier in the month to handle rolling delays and shifting traffic flows. Using reserves early reduces the available backup for peak periods, such as Thanksgiving week.

Dennis Tajer of the Allied Pilots Association: using reserves earlier “means they won’t have headroom to fly later when needed the most during our heaviest flight schedules during the Thanksgiving week.”

Training pipeline stalled — long-term consequences

The controller training pipeline has stalled because of the shutdown. Training for new hires has been halted, compounding the shortage and narrowing the bench for the months ahead.

• Certification is a step-by-step, time-consuming process.
• When trainees fall behind, the system loses its ability to backfill absent or fatigued personnel.
• Promotions and advanced facility staffing are delayed.

Lost training time cannot be recovered quickly; the backlog lingers long after the shutdown ends.

Fatigue, stress, and the human buffer

Fatigue and stress are central to the warnings. Controllers must maintain intense focus every shift; working without pay raises stress at home and at work.

• Some controllers take sick leave to cope or manage family needs.
• Others pick up side work, which cuts into rest and recovery time.
• Each factor chips away at the human buffer that prevents mistakes from aligning.

Well-rested controllers are a key part of the safety net. Tired controllers—no matter how skilled—cannot provide the same margin for error.

Examples and on-the-ground impacts

Field reports illustrate how close some facilities are to the edge. At Burbank Airport (California), there was a period where “no one was in the control tower for a point. The next shift, it was staffed OK.” That unpredictable swing shows how coverage can vary shift to shift.

Facilities have contingency plans for short gaps, but extended pressure increases the risk that thinly staffed shifts coincide with bad weather or traffic surges. When factors overlap, controllers have fewer options to slow down or reroute flights because the system’s slack has already been used.

How the problems cascade

Homendy outlined how the issues interact in a chain reaction:

1. Staffing shortages push the FAA to cut traffic.
2. Cutting traffic prompts airlines to use reserve crews early.
3. Early reserve use narrows crew cushions during peak periods.
4. Training pauses reduce the pipeline of replacements.
5. Controllers working without pay face rising stress and increased sick leave.

All together, these factors shrink safety margins—extra people, extra time, extra training—that normally catch small errors before they escalate.

Passenger impacts

The downstream effects reach travelers:

• The 10% cut in the busiest markets means fewer seats, higher odds of missed connections, and limited rebooking options.
• Airlines maintain safety by slowing operations; passengers experience longer lines, tighter schedules, and swapped crews that can push duty limits.
• The choice to slow down is a precaution, but repeated disruptions can erode patience and increase pressure to resume normal volume before readiness is restored.

Historical context

Controller staffing has been a long-running challenge, worsened by past shutdowns and the COVID-19 pandemic, which paused hiring and training repeatedly. The sector has not fully recovered, and the current shutdown freezes progress again.

• During the 2018–2019 shutdown, about 10% of TSA workers called in sick, creating long lines. A similar pattern is now observed among controllers, though consequences in air traffic control have higher stakes due to their role in separation and sequencing.

Facility-level realities and triage

At the facility level, supervisors often combine positions to cope with thin staffing, which reduces the number of voices available for workload sharing and double-checking instructions.

• When staffing is stable: controllers can handle narrower sectors and plan departures/arrivals carefully.
• When staffing is tight: sectors are combined and pace accelerates, increasing cognitive load.

Reducing traffic helps, but busy hubs still require multiple sets of eyes to manage complex flows and coordinate with adjacent facilities. It becomes a constant balancing act between safety and throughput with fewer people.

Training and recovery constraints

The training pipeline itself is redundancy. Pausing instruction at the academy and in-field removes tomorrow’s capacity to recover.

• Trainees fall out of sequence; check rides get pushed.
• The FAA must catch up later, but trainers are also needed to keep current operations staffed.
• It’s a squeeze: you need people to train new people, but those trainers are needed on the boards now.

Clarifications about risk

Experts emphasize this does not mean “every plane is going to fall out of the sky.” Mourning stressed that catastrophic events remain rare. The concern is about trend lines: the slow erosion of margins.

• Analogy: driving with a half-flat spare tire — you can still reach your destination, but you have less room for error.
• In aviation, that spare comprises rested controllers, extra staff, trainees, and schedule slack.

The rhythm of controllers’ work under strain

Without pay and with rising stress, it’s harder for controllers to manage the mental load of handling multiple aircraft while coordinating handoffs, altitude changes, and runway crossings.

• Each step relies on checks designed to catch errors before they matter.
• Under staffing shortages and stress, that safety net tightens: procedures remain, but the margin for absorbing blips shrinks.

Capacity-constrained airports feel it first

Airports operating near capacity experience the squeeze earliest. A typical morning bank can be handled at a reduced departure rate, but afternoon storms or equipment issues can cause backlogs that spill into the evening.

• With more than 90% of towers understaffed and a 10% reduction in high-volume markets, flexibility is limited.
• Controllers and supervisors must make do with available staff; airlines must run a thinner operation with less recovery room.

Expert perspectives on culture and funding

Former DOT Inspector General Mary Schiavo highlights that safety culture depends on stable funding and uninterrupted oversight. Past episodes show that even when no single failure stands out, the system grows more brittle if key people are tired and training is paused.

• The rare headline event is not the only measure of risk.
• The daily tasks—spacing arrivals, clearing departures, coordinating missed approaches—require margin to absorb small errors.

Maintenance and auxiliary effects

The shutdown affects edges of the system too. Routine maintenance, equipment checks, and software updates depend on staff availability.

• While current warnings focus primarily on people, loss of routine slack leaves less time for supporting tasks that maintain performance.
• “Progressive loss of backup systems” includes hardware and the everyday backup of extra eyes, extra time, and extra training seats.

Reiterating the core message

Homendy: “pressures are building in the system.” Pressure can accumulate quietly before appearing suddenly. Controllers and pilots train for crisis moments, but training schedules themselves are paused.

• Airlines can cut flights, reassign crews, and trim banks to keep days from breaking.
• Those fixes preserve the day but do not restore lost cushion.
• Until staffing, pay, and training return to normal, the risk curve inches upward—not to panic levels, but enough to worry those who manage the system.

Daniels’s blunt assessment—“tomorrow is now less safe than today”—marks a trend: each day adds fatigue, unpaid work, delayed training, and earlier reserve use. Individually these might not alarm the public; together they thin the safeguards that protect flying.

What remains reassuring

Controllers continue to show up, work the scopes, and apply rules that have made U.S. skies among the safest. Pilots continue to follow procedures designed to handle complex traffic and weather.

• Nonetheless, trust should be informed: a cautious system lowers throughput to keep risk low.
• A stressed system that increases throughput before restoring staff and training cannot promise the same margins.

The 10% cut is less a headline and more a signal: the system is choosing safety over speed because buffers that make both possible have been pared back.

Where to find official updates

For official updates on air traffic operations and safety policy, the Federal Aviation Administration posts public information and advisories on the Federal Aviation Administration website.

While the agency has not offered a detailed public breakdown of the day-by-day effects described by controllers, union leaders, and aviation experts, the recurring themes from those closest to the work are clear: staffing shortages, fatigue, and paused training. Those themes hold across facilities—from busy hubs to regional towers that feed larger centers—and they describe a steady narrowing of operational options as the shutdown continues.