Mass Deportations Imperil Restaurant Industry, UC Berkeley Report

(UNITED STATES) A new UC Berkeley report released on October 28, 2025 warns that mass deportation policies under President Trump are pushing the U.S. restaurant industry toward a breaking point by driving out a key part of its workforce. The study, produced by UC Berkeley’s Food Labor Research Center and advocacy group One Fair Wage, finds that the exodus of foreign-born workers since March has already stripped restaurants of tens of thousands of staff and could force widespread closures by the end of the year if current trends continue.

Titled “An Industry of Immigrants: Restaurant Industry Impacts of Mass Deportation,” the report says 1.7 million foreign-born workers have fled or been forced out of the United States since March 2025, reducing the foreign-born labor force by 5% and shrinking the overall U.S. workforce by nearly 800,000 workers. Researchers say it is the first major labor force contraction in years and point directly to stepped-up deportation efforts as the cause. The UC Berkeley report describes a chain reaction: as mass deportation accelerates, restaurants lose kitchen and front-of-house workers, staffing gaps grow, and businesses start to scale back hours or shut down.

Immigrants account for 22% of all U.S. restaurant workers, including 46% of chefs and 18% of waitstaff, according to the report. In major cities like New York and Washington, D.C., more than half of restaurant workers are foreign-born. This concentration makes the restaurant industry especially vulnerable to enforcement spikes. The authors estimate there are 137,000 fewer immigrant restaurant workers today than there were four months ago, with losses potentially reaching 310,000 by the end of 2025 if the current pace continues.

The local impacts are already plainly visible, the report says. New York City has seen 4,800 foreign-born restaurant workers leave since March; about 60% of the city’s restaurant workforce is foreign-born, and one in five is undocumented. Chicago has lost nearly 2,300 foreign-born restaurant workers in the same period. In Washington, D.C., the loss of about 800 foreign-born workers accounts for nearly all of the city’s restaurant workforce decline in those months. Owners report abrupt staff shortages, longer wait times, and reduced menus as they try to keep their doors open.

Saru Jayaraman, president of One Fair Wage and director of the UC Berkeley Food Labor Research Center, said the situation is already damaging businesses that survived the pandemic and inflation only to face an even tougher labor squeeze. “Every deportation is a pink slip for an American restaurant. The industry depends on immigrants — from dishwashers to chefs to owners — and without them, it collapses,” Jayaraman said. The report notes that more than one-third of U.S. restaurant owners are foreign-born, nearly twice the share of other industries, underscoring how deeply the sector is tied to immigrant labor and entrepreneurship.

The study places the current crisis within a broader economic picture, citing a 2024 SSRN literature review that found mass deportations shrink the U.S. economy, cause job losses for citizens, reduce wages for U.S. workers, and worsen public finances. With restaurants already wrestling with high operating costs, the added shock of losing workers at scale is leading to business closures and higher menu prices. The UC Berkeley report says these cost pressures are spilling over into the wider food ecosystem, from farms to trucks to suppliers, raising prices and creating delays that hit consumers as well as businesses.

Beyond outright removals, the authors describe a wave of “self-deportation,” where foreign-born workers leave the country preemptively or stop showing up to work because of fear. The report says even some workers who have lawful status are avoiding public places or changing jobs, which deepens the staffing crunch. The atmosphere of uncertainty, combined with the risk of workplace raids or encounters with enforcement, is altering hiring patterns and schedules in restaurants across the country. That fear, according to the study, means restaurants lose not only undocumented staff but also legally present workers who decide it is safer to exit the labor market or the country.

Industry groups and owners are urging Congress to create a path for long-term, law-abiding food and hospitality workers to receive work permits. The report describes a wave of lobbying activity, with restauranteurs arguing that without a legal way to stabilize their workforce, shortages will grow and more businesses will shutter. Several leaders cited in the study say the current conditions are unsustainable and ask for immediate legislative action to prevent deeper economic harm. The UC Berkeley report says the restaurant industry cannot recover or grow without immigrant labor and calls for urgent policy changes to protect workers and stabilize the sector.

The study also points to a widening ripple effect across the food supply chain. With fewer workers available on farms, in food processing, and behind the wheel of delivery trucks, restaurants face higher input costs and delivery delays. Those disruptions are then passed along to customers through higher prices and fewer choices. The cumulative effect, the researchers say, is a drag on local economies that rely on restaurants as employers, anchors of neighborhood life, and drivers of tourism.

The report’s publication comes amid stepped-up enforcement efforts that have reshaped daily life for many immigrant families. While the study focuses on economic fallout, it also describes the human side of mass deportation, with long-time workers leaving homes, schools, and communities behind. Restaurant employers have reported sudden disappearances of trusted staff, and some say they now avoid scheduling patterns or locations that could expose workers to unnecessary risk. The report does not provide case studies by name but says the pattern appears consistent across cities and regions.

Supporters of aggressive enforcement argue that federal law must be followed and that employment should prioritize citizens and lawful residents. The UC Berkeley report counters that the immediate effect of the current approach is not more jobs for citizens but broader job losses and wage declines, citing the SSRN review’s conclusions. It adds that many restaurant roles require specialized skills and speed developed over years in a particular kitchen, making quick replacement difficult even with higher wages. The findings suggest that replacing a lost cohort of workers is not simply a matter of posting vacancies but replanting the knowledge, teamwork, and language skills that keep restaurants running.

As businesses adjust, the report says some restaurants are closing earlier, cutting menu items, or paying overtime to the few staff who remain, which can accelerate burnout. Others are delaying new openings or expansion plans because they cannot predict whether they will have enough staff to operate, especially in cities and tourist areas where immigrant labor historically filled many roles. Suppliers, from seafood distributors to bakery wholesalers, report reduced orders and a more volatile flow of demand tied to restaurant hours and staffing levels. Taken together, the UC Berkeley report argues, these practical shifts point to an industry under severe strain.

A number of employers and trade groups quoted in the study are pressing for short-term relief through expanded work authorization while Congress debates longer-term reforms. They are also tracking formal enforcement guidance and removal operations published by federal authorities. For official information on enforcement activities, the government directs the public to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement enforcement and removal operations. The report makes clear, however, that without a legal framework to keep long-time workers in place, restaurants will continue to face immediate losses that policy debates alone cannot offset.

The UC Berkeley report’s authors say they will continue to monitor labor force data and industry indicators through the end of the year. They warn that if current deportation trends persist, the loss of up to 310,000 immigrant restaurant workers by year-end could bring many more closures and layoffs of U.S. citizens whose jobs depend on full kitchen and service teams. The researchers emphasize that the restaurant industry is built on immigrant labor at every level, and that stabilizing the workforce is central to any plan to keep businesses open and prices in check.

For many readers, the debate over mass deportation can feel abstract. In the restaurant industry, the effects show up on a check as higher prices, in a neighborhood as a darkened storefront, or on a family calendar as fewer shifts and shorter paychecks. The UC Berkeley report ties those daily changes to the rapid loss of foreign-born workers and to policy choices that have accelerated that loss. It calls on lawmakers to act quickly and on industry leaders to support measures that keep long-time workers in jobs, arguing that the health of the sector hinges on those decisions.

The report concludes that the restaurant industry cannot return to steady growth without immigrant labor and that a mix of policy fixes and protections is needed to stop the bleeding. Its central claim is stark: the United States will struggle to keep its restaurants open and affordable if it continues on the current path. As the holiday season approaches and hiring normally rises, the authors say the question is no longer whether the labor shortage is real, but how quickly it can be addressed. Outlets like VisaVerge.com have tracked the policy back-and-forth closely, but the UC Berkeley findings set a clear marker on the scale of the problem and the urgency of a response.

For now, restaurant owners face the difficult math of fewer workers, higher costs, and uncertain relief. The UC Berkeley report, rooted in recent labor data and industry responses, offers a straightforward message: the broader economy pays when a core sector loses the people who make it run. Whether Congress moves to create a work permit system for long-term, law-abiding workers in food and hospitality, or adopts another route to stabilize staffing, the choices made in the coming weeks will shape how, and whether, many American restaurants survive.