Poll Finds Economy and Immigration Are On the Wrong Track

(UNITED STATES) Most Americans now say the United States is heading in the wrong direction, with deep worry about the economy and sharp debate over immigration, according to a set of late-summer and early fall surveys that put public frustration at some of the highest levels in recent years. In an AP-NORC poll conducted in September 2025, fully 75% of adults said the country is “on the wrong track,” up from 62% in June. That jump in pessimism, coupled with negative ratings on inflation and living costs from other respected pollsters, suggests a sour national mood that is shaping views of immigration policy at every level—legal visas, border enforcement, and the future of undocumented residents brought to the country as children.

Economic outlook: the main driver of public mood

The economy is the primary source of national gloom. A majority disapproves of President Trump’s handling of the economy, including trade, and multiple polls show concern about prices and living standards.

• Ipsos: Majorities say the cost of living and inflation are on the wrong track.
• Harvard CAPS/Harris (early October): Only 28% think the economy is on the right track, while 46% say it is on the wrong track.
• Even among Republicans, nearly three in ten give the president low marks for the economy and government functioning—an uncommon dip in in-party confidence.

These economic views form the backdrop to the country’s wider debate about immigration, where Americans express strong support for legal immigration but a sharper split on enforcement toward people here without legal status.

Public support for legal immigration

Views on immigration are nuanced and not one-dimensional. Support for legal immigration is at record highs in long-running national polling.

• Gallup (tracking since 2001): 79% now say immigration is good for the country.
• Majorities across parties agree, though Republicans are more skeptical than Democrats and independents.
• Economic perceptions:
  • 6 in 10 say legal immigrants help grow the economy.
  • About half say U.S. companies benefit from skilled immigrants in science and technology.
  • About half of the public favors keeping current legal immigration levels the same; fewer now call for cuts than in prior years.

Federal policy vs. public sentiment

Despite rising favorability toward legal immigration, federal policy in October 2025 moved toward more restrictions:

• New measures announced include:
  • A $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applications
  • “Anti-Americanism” screening for green card seekers
  • Mandatory social media checks for student visa applicants

Business and academic leaders criticize these steps, saying they will make it harder for U.S. employers to recruit needed talent and could weaken competitiveness in technology and research. This creates a widening gap between policy direction and voter sentiment.

Views on unauthorized immigration and enforcement

Americans are more divided about unauthorized immigration and enforcement inside the country.

• Many see risks and fewer benefits from people living in the U.S. without legal status.
• But most oppose mass deportation of non-criminal residents:
  • Nearly two-thirds oppose arresting and detaining people with no criminal record.
  • Similar shares oppose practices like officers concealing their identity during arrests or sending people to third countries without court review.
• Party splits:
  • Over 80% of Democrats say deportation efforts have gone too far.
  • A majority of Republicans say efforts haven’t gone far enough.
  • Independents lean against aggressive enforcement but are more mixed than either major party.

Border security: a relative bright spot

Public views separate border security from broader immigration policy:

• 55% approve of President Trump’s handling of border security.
• Broader immigration approval is lower (about 43%), with higher disapproval.

This split reflects the administration’s emphasis on enforcement (workplace raids, deployments of Marines and National Guard) while the public also signals a desire for humane, balanced approaches—enforcement with due process rather than broad, indiscriminate actions.

Political trends and demographic changes

The political backdrop has shifted quickly:

• Under the Biden administration, illegal crossings rose, intensifying concern.
• Early enforcement under Trump eased some Republican worries but did not produce broad public approval for aggressive tactics.
• Restrictionist sentiment that rose from 2021–2024 has eased.
• The foreign-born population reportedly declined by over one million since June 2025, a rare drop not seen since the 1960s, likely due to reduced legal entries and more removals.

Real-world consequences for institutions and families

Policy changes have tangible impacts:

• H-1B overhaul
  • Raises direct costs sharply and could price out small firms and startups reliant on high-skilled workers.
  • Could reduce the pipeline of foreign-born engineers, scientists, and doctors.
• Student visa changes
  • Social media screening and longer processing may deter international students; Canada, the UK, and Australia are competing for those applicants.
  • Declines in international enrollment would strain public university budgets and reduce research output.
• Green card applicants
  • Subjective screening may lengthen processing times and increase denials.

Mixed-status families face stress and disruption when enforcement actions occur. Community protests in cities that experienced workplace raids have highlighted the human and local economic impacts when primary breadwinners are detained.

Where public opinion centers

Despite concerns about unauthorized immigration, a durable political center has emerged:

• Large majorities support a path to citizenship for people brought to the U.S. as children (Dreamers).
• When border pressure eases, the public becomes more open to regularizing long-settled neighbors.
• The common middle ground: support for legal paths, firmness at the border, and restraint inside the country—targeted enforcement focused on recent arrivals and serious criminals rather than broad sweeps.

“Many Americans want better control at the border, but they also want enforcement to be balanced and humane.”

Policy debate: military deployments and enforcement tactics

The administration’s use of Marines and National Guard to assist immigration operations has raised debate:

• Supporters argue it provides capacity and resolve.
• Critics say it blurs military/civilian roles and risks heavy-handed local actions.
• Protests after high-profile raids underscore how enforcement tactics can dominate national conversation and overshadow positive immigration stories like family reunification and refugee resettlement.

Polling consensus

Major polling groups—AP-NORC, Pew, Gallup, Ipsos, and Harvard CAPS/Harris—paint a consistent picture:

• Most Americans feel dissatisfied with the nation’s current direction, especially economically.
• Immigration views are nuanced: legal immigration is increasingly seen as a strength, while broad enforcement against people with deep roots is resisted.
• People want clear rules at the border and due process for enforcement actions.

Practical guidance for affected groups

For immigrants, employers, and families:

• Expect higher costs, longer processing times, and closer review, even for legal cases.
• Employers should:
  • Prepare for increased compliance demands.
  • Set realistic recruitment timelines tied to visa schedules.
• Families with mixed status should:
  • Seek reputable legal guidance, particularly in areas with increased workplace operations.
• Community groups, faith leaders, and local governments can:
  • Share accurate information and connect people to legal aid.

What to watch next

1. Economic indicators
   • If inflation cools and wages keep pace, “wrong-track” numbers could ease and shift voter tradeoffs on immigration.
2. Legal challenges
   • Court rulings on screening standards and enforcement practices could limit or reshape new measures.
3. Visa processing data
   • Application volumes and approval rates will reveal how much the $100,000 H-1B fee and extra vetting reduce legal inflows.
4. Border trends
   • If crossings remain down, public support for citizenship pathways could persist or increase.

Official resource

For official background on existing legal pathways, see the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services H-1B program page:
– https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations

This is the main federal resource for how the program operates; employers and applicants should rely on the latest federal guidance and consult qualified counsel for case-specific advice.

Political stakes and local impacts

With the 2026 midterms approaching, both parties face a public that is wary, budget-conscious, and attentive to the human costs of policy.

• President Trump: best marks on border security but headwinds on the economy and overall immigration handling.
• President Biden’s years remain part of the public comparison, especially over prior rises in crossings.

Local examples illustrate everyday consequences:

• A small tech firm in Ohio may delay a product launch if it cannot afford an H-1B petition for a critical engineer.
• An Arizona hospital may reconsider a specialty clinic if recruiting foreign-trained nurses and doctors slows.
• A graduate student in India (or Brazil, or Nigeria) may choose Canada after reading about stricter vetting.
• A longtime Texas resident without a criminal record might avoid public spaces for fear of raids separating her from U.S.-born children.

These are real, lived impacts at the edge of policy.

Bottom line

The polls show strain: the AP-NORC September 2025 snapshot found 75% saying the U.S. is off course. Ipsos reports 61% say the cost of living is on the wrong track and 59% say the same about inflation. Harvard CAPS/Harris similarly finds only 28% see the economy on the right track.

Combine those economic worries with growing public support for legal immigration and resistance to mass deportation, and the picture is clear:

• Policy is tightening even as voters favor openness in legal channels.
• Enforcement is visible even as people ask for fairness and transparency.
• How the tension resolves will depend on actions in Washington, court rulings, and developments on the ground.
• If the economy steadies, leaders may have more room to align policy with public sentiment; if not, pressure will build from businesses, universities, and communities feeling the pinch.

The latest polls make one thing plain: Americans are watching closely and want a system that marries secure borders, real legal pathways, and a humane approach for people who call the United States home.