India warns U.S. H-1B fee hike could hit services exports, remittance

(INDIA) India’s Finance Ministry said the United States 🇺🇸 move to impose a one-time $100,000 H-1B visa fee on new petitions could dent the country’s services exports and slow remittance inflows, warning that continued restrictions may ripple through sectors that have, until now, stayed resilient. The ministry called current risks “manageable,” but said the change serves as a clear reminder that global trade rules can shift quickly and hit the services economy, which has supported growth even as goods trade has faced pressure.

The new fee applies only to new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025, and does not affect renewals or currently approved petitions, according to the ministry’s note shared with Indian media. That filing date matters for thousands of Indian workers and their employers, as Indian nationals made up 71% of approved H-1B applicants in 2024, a share that underscores how a sharp cost increase could influence both worker flows and corporate planning.

Barclays research cited by Indian media said the hit to remittances may be limited. The bank estimated potential losses are unlikely to exceed $5 billion out of around $83 billion in remittances from the U.S., but it cautioned that job losses and dependent livelihoods “cannot be discounted.” The report also noted that countries like Germany and Canada 🇨🇦 are winning more Indian skilled workers, a shift that could change talent routes if the U.S. becomes less accessible or more expensive for employers.

According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, Indian professionals have long formed the backbone of the H-1B system, which helps U.S. employers hire in fields like technology, finance, and healthcare. With Indian IT giants such as Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys depending on these visas, a six-figure filing cost could alter staffing models, offshore/onshore balances, and even timelines for major client projects. Any decline in the number of new petitions could slow the pipeline of Indian workers heading to the U.S., reducing the future base of earners who send money home and contribute to remittance inflows.

What the fee could change for employers and workers

The government’s assessment suggests startups and mid-sized companies will face the sharpest pain. Young firms often lack the cash buffers of large multinationals. A $100,000 H-1B visa fee per new petition could force founders to:

• delay hiring,
• pick costlier local options, or
• move roles to other countries.

In contrast, bigger corporations may absorb the charge, spread it across budgets, or rely more on other visa categories. Even if large employers adapt, fewer filings by smaller firms could still reduce the overall number of H-1B visas issued, hitting the diversity of opportunities available to Indian talent.

For many Indian professionals, the H-1B is more than a work permit. It’s the route to U.S. career growth, higher pay, and family stability. If employers scale back filings, skilled workers could face:

• longer waits,
• narrower choices, and
• greater pressure to consider Europe or Canada.

This matters for India’s services exports, where onsite roles and client-facing work in the U.S. often anchor long-term contracts and help teams in India deliver complex projects.

The Finance Ministry also linked the risk to the broader trade picture. Strong services exports and steady remittance inflows have helped offset India’s wider merchandise trade deficit. If the pipeline of Indian professionals to the U.S. slows, that buffer could weaken over time. While the ministry said the current drag is “manageable,” it stressed that the new fee is a reminder that policy shocks can reach parts of the economy that once felt insulated.

Timelines, scope, and official context

• Effective date: applies to new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025.
• Scope: does not apply to renewals or petitions already approved before that date.
• Implication: the timing gives employers a window to revisit hiring plans, budgets, and role locations, and gives Indian workers time to weigh their options.

For official program guidance on H-1B eligibility, caps, and petition steps, readers can consult the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services H-1B program page: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations. The government page explains who can qualify, the kinds of jobs covered, and how the annual process works. While the new fee policy isn’t reflected in standard materials yet, the page remains the most authoritative source for baseline rules that applicants and employers must follow.

Economic and social impacts

Barclays and media reports suggest the immediate damage to remittance inflows may remain capped, but the social impact could still be real. Families relying on a single U.S. earner could face sudden changes if hiring slows or salaries abroad plateau. In India’s technology hubs, smaller outsourcing firms could rethink U.S. ambitions and seek growth in markets where costs are lower and visa terms are more predictable.

Market watchers expect the policy could split the field:

• Large IT firms with deep U.S. footprints might absorb the H-1B visa fee and keep critical roles in place, while moving some functions to India or other locations to balance expenses.
• Startups and mid-tier players may pivot faster to Europe or Asia, or move product development to India while maintaining only essential roles in the U.S.

Over time, this could nudge talent flows away from the U.S., especially if rival destinations keep improving their pathways for skilled workers.

VisaVerge.com reports that India’s heavy representation in H-1B approvals means any abrupt cost change inevitably hits Indian households and employers first. The 71% share in 2024 shows how central Indian professionals are to U.S. high-skill hiring. A slowdown in new entries could also reduce the future pool of Indian applicants who later become managers and founders, reshaping both startup ecosystems and delivery models on both sides.

Still, analysts note that India’s services exports have shown strong resilience through past policy shifts. Companies learned to blend onsite work with remote delivery and short client visits. Whether that same model can blunt the effect of a $100,000 filing cost is unclear, especially for firms that need early-stage engineers and client-facing staff present in the U.S. at critical moments.

The Finance Ministry’s tone suggests preparedness, not panic. Officials are tracking how employers respond and whether the fee dampens petition volumes. If the policy persists, India may see a gradual redirection of skilled workers to countries working to attract talent, including Germany and Canada 🇨🇦. That shift would not end remittance inflows or cross-border services, but it could change where Indian workers grow their careers—and where Indian firms anchor their next phase of global expansion.