Conestoga College: 97% Permit Drop Highlights Immigration Shift Risks

(CANADA) Conestoga College’s dramatic collapse in study permit approvals has become a stark case study in how Canada’s tightening rules on temporary residents are reshaping higher education. The college, one of Ontario’s largest recruiters of international students, has seen a 97% drop in permit approvals, a fall tied to new federal caps, a more selective approach to temporary resident inflows, and the sudden end of a fast-track student program that once favored key source countries. The steep decline lays bare the risks of an enrollment model built on rapid growth from a narrow set of markets—especially India—at a time when federal priorities have shifted toward slower, more sustainable intake and a tighter link to labour needs.

Policy shift and how it arrived

The change arrived fast. In 2024, Ottawa set caps on temporary resident admissions, for the first time limiting the number of study permits that could be granted across the country. Policymakers framed the move as a response to pressure on housing, public services, and wages after a surge in temporary residents during the post-pandemic rebound.

Colleges that had grown quickly on international tuition—Conestoga among them—faced fewer approvals, longer processing times, and greater uncertainty for incoming cohorts.

For students, the change was also procedural and practical. The federal government ended the Student Direct Stream (SDS) in November 2023, closing a pathway that had sped up processing for students from certain countries, including India. That decision, taken in the name of fraud prevention and broader diversity goals, removed a key advantage for applicants and schools that had relied on predictable timelines and high volumes from SDS markets.

The end of SDS pushed many applicants into standard processing channels precisely when overall volumes were being capped, creating bottlenecks and adding stress to families who had planned around fixed start dates and budgets.

National and regional impacts

Nationally, college-level study permit issuances fell by 26% in the 2023/24 academic year. But the impact was uneven:

• Ontario absorbed more of the shock—large public colleges with private partnerships and heavy overseas recruitment were hit hardest.
• British Columbia recorded increases in permits for Indian nationals, offsetting some provincial losses and intensifying competition among provinces and institutions.
• Alberta saw gains in some categories, contributing to a regional split that raises questions about allocation methods and institutional behaviour across Canada.

Conestoga’s 97% drop is particularly stark—a near freeze in approvals that highlights the risk of reliance on a narrow market and fast-track processing.

Financial and institutional consequences

The financial stakes are clear. International tuition often supports:

• core operations,
• capital projects,
• services for all students.

A sudden reduction creates budget gaps that are hard to fill quickly, especially when domestic enrollment is flat and public funding is tight.

Financial planners at colleges describe a two-front challenge:

1. Manage the immediate loss in tuition revenue.
2. Reset recruitment and programming to fit a smaller share of international students and a closer tie to regional labour gaps.

Tactical responses include:

• expanding partnerships with local employers (health care, skilled trades),
• revising seat allocations by program,
• shifting marketing toward more diverse markets (Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia),
• revisiting agent contracts and bringing more recruitment in-house to tighten oversight.

Policy context: Immigration Levels Plan & IRCC direction

The Immigration Levels Plan for 2025–2027 sharpened the policy turn:

• Permanent resident target: 395,000 in 2025 (down by 105,000 from earlier projections).
• Temporary resident population: aim to reduce from 6.2% to 5% of the total population by 2027.

The federal argument: grow at a pace that matches housing supply, ease pressure on health care and transit, and direct pathways to permanent status toward people already settled in Canada—workers and graduates with needed skills.

IRCC’s 2025–2026 Departmental Plan suggests the policy direction will hold, with moves including:

• making the Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot permanent for certain applicants,
• testing new work permit streams in agriculture and fish processing,
• adjusting post-graduation work permit (PGWP) rules and spousal open work permits,
• launching a new online client system (promising clearer experience but stricter data checks).

These steps point to a future in which study-to-work pathways remain, but access will depend more on program quality, fraud controls, and labour alignment.

How institutions and families are adjusting

Students and families feel the personal cost. Consequences include:

• longer timelines,
• uncertain start dates,
• stricter documentation checks,
• deposits delayed or refunded,
• need for backup plans in home countries or alternate destinations.

Processing officers are requesting more proof of funds, program fit, or ties to the home country—especially for applicants from markets flagged for high fraud risk. The end of SDS means even well-prepared files may move slower, complicating housing and travel arrangements.

Colleges are changing practices to protect students and themselves:

• fewer intakes per year,
• tighter admission windows,
• more proof-of-funds checks upfront,
• coordinated housing plans tied to offers,
• more co-op and paid placement options to demonstrate job outcomes,
• building employer bridges in rural and mid-sized communities.

Financial and operational planning now emphasizes alignment with regional labour needs to increase the chance of permit approvals and successful post-graduation transitions.

Quality, fairness, and regional considerations

Many educators see the lesson as a shift to quality assurance and workforce outcomes. Programs tied to clear jobs—health care support, early childhood education, construction, advanced manufacturing—are likelier to retain international seats.

Critics and advocacy groups raise fairness concerns:

• lower approval odds for applicants from parts of Africa and other underrepresented regions,
• calls for transparency around allocation methods and clear criteria for how study permit approvals get assigned to provinces and institutions,
• worries that the cap can unfairly reward already-strong schools and penalize others, exacerbating regional disparities.

Geography matters. British Columbia’s relative resilience with Indian permits suggests local capacity (housing plans, employer pipelines, compliance track record) can influence outcomes under a national cap. Ontario’s tight housing markets likely influenced decisions about short-term intake, explaining steeper declines there.

Practical guidance for families and applicants

Families weighing offers in Canada should focus on three practical checkpoints:

1. Confirm the institution’s track record of permits being issued for your program in the last two intakes.
2. Review housing availability and costs near campus; strong plans reduce the chance of deferrals.
3. Check graduate outcomes and co-op placements in the field.

Applicants can improve odds by:

• presenting a coherent study plan,
• linking program choice to past study or work,
• showing realistic budgets for tuition and living costs,
• providing clear, complete documents to avoid processing delays.

Colleges can help by setting firmer deposit and refund rules that reflect real approval timelines, not optimistic best-case scenarios, and by avoiding over-offering seats beyond likely permit allocations.

The human and local economic ripple effects

The Conestoga case shows the human side of policy shifts:

• students deferring or facing refusals,
• parents needing refunds or changing plans,
• landlords with vacant student rentals,
• small businesses near campuses losing customers.

These ripple effects illustrate how national policy decisions reach into local communities and personal plans.

Early signs of adaptation and potential paths forward

Some early adaptations include:

• boosting domestic outreach to fill seats with local graduates and adult learners,
• adding micro-credentials linked to employer needs,
• forming regional consortia to share best practices on compliance, housing planning, and reporting.

If colleges, governments, and employers coordinate—focusing on program quality, employer links, and recruitment diversity—international education can remain a stable, long-term contributor to communities and the economy. But the era of easy, fast growth is over; institutions that adapt fastest will protect both their future and students’ dreams.

Key takeaway: Conestoga’s 97% drop is a warning that international education cannot rely on fast-track streams and a single market. Stable recovery requires diverse recruitment, strict compliance, strong student supports, and programs that lead to real jobs.

Policy Changes Overview

• Temporary resident caps: Ottawa set limits on study permits, reducing volumes across the college sector, with Ontario colleges hit hardest and national college permits down 26% in 2023/24.
• End of SDS (Nov. 2023): Faster processing ended for key countries, including India, removing a major pipeline for schools that depended on predictable timelines and higher approval odds.
• Immigration Levels Plan 2025–2027: Permanent resident target of 395,000 in 2025; the temporary resident population to drop to 5% of national population by 2027, with a focus on applicants already in Canada.
• IRCC 2025–2026 updates: Plans to launch the permanent Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot, create targeted work permit streams for food systems, adjust PGWP and spousal open work permits, and roll out a new online client account.

Impact on Applicants and Institutions

• Conestoga’s downturn: A 97% drop in study permit approvals reveals the risk of heavy reliance on one source country and the limits of growth built on fast-track processing.
• Regional split: Ontario suffered deep declines in permits for Indian students, while British Columbia and parts of Alberta saw increases that offset losses elsewhere.
• Student experience: Longer wait times, stricter reviews, and housing stress raise the cost of delay for families; clear study plans and strong documentation matter more than ever.
• College response: Diversify recruitment, tighten admission checks, link programs to jobs, and align seat offers with realistic permit allocations and housing capacity.

For official program details and ongoing updates on policies affecting international students, visit the Government of Canada’s Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada page at IRCC – Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.