CBO: Immigration crackdown risks shrinking U.S. population, inflation

(UNITED STATES) The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says President Trump’s 2025 immigration crackdown under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is already reshaping America’s population path, warning that slower growth now threatens inflation and GDP in the years ahead. In a September update, the CBO said deaths will exceed births starting in 2031, two years earlier than it previously expected, mainly because fewer immigrants are arriving and families are having fewer children. The finding lands as enforcement, detention, deportations, and legal barriers expand nationwide, reshaping workforces and family life across the United States 🇺🇸.

At the center is the law itself. Signed on July 4, 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act channels $170 billion into immigration and border enforcement, including $29.9 billion for ICE and hiring 10,000 new ICE officers. The CBO links these resources to much greater enforcement:

• 290,000 removals between 2026 and 2029
• 50,000 people detained per day in that period
• About 5,500 more ICE arrests in 2026 and 100,000 more by 2029 than without the policy
• 30,000 additional voluntary departures from 2026 through 2030

Those numbers feed into a broader demographic downgrade. The CBO’s projection shows population growth cooling faster than expected, and outside forecasters say this year’s inflow may be even weaker. The San Francisco Federal Reserve now estimates net immigration near 1.0 million in 2025, less than half last year and less than a third of 2023. The CBO’s model still assumes about 2.0 million for 2025, but real-time indicators suggest a steeper drop because stricter rules are reducing arrivals and pushing more people to leave.

Policy scale and enforcement mechanics

Policy changes run well beyond removals. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act:

• Expands family detention and permits indefinite detention of children and parents — steps that have drawn sharp objections from legal and medical groups.
• Suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program indefinitely as of January 27, 2025.
• Announced a new travel ban on June 4, 2025, restricting entry from 19 countries, with up to 36 more countries potentially added.
• Increased fees for work permits, asylum, and appeals under new USCIS guidance effective July 22, 2025.

Administration officials defend the crackdown as a reset for security and economic fairness, arguing that stronger borders and faster removals protect workers and cut smuggling. The CBO, as a nonpartisan scorekeeper, takes no political position but finds that reduced immigration links to a smaller labor force, limiting how many jobs the economy can support.

Economists at the American Enterprise Institute and Brookings note that the U.S.-born population alone cannot keep growth on track without immigrant workers. The near-term economic risks are:

• Employers bid up pay to fill openings, pushing wage and price pressures higher.
• Shortages hitting hardest in industries that rely on immigrants — from food processing to elder care.
• Higher wages that can help workers but also complicate inflation control, raising the chance of higher costs for families.

Analysis by VisaVerge.com suggests smaller inflows also tend to reduce entrepreneurship and slow regional recoveries after downturns.

Economic stakes and community impact

The CBO quantifies the economic drag: weaker immigration could trim annual GDP growth by 0.3% to 0.4%, or $70.5 billion to $94 billion in lost output each year.

Social and community effects include:

• Limits on access to public health coverage, nutrition help, and the Child Tax Credit for many lawfully present immigrants, disproportionately affecting low-income families.
• Local clinics, schools, and food banks reporting rising strain as policies ripple through mixed-status households.
• Increased fear and disruption: the American Immigration Lawyers Association calls the statute a “blueprint for mass deportation and fear,” citing family separation risks, expanded detention, and the refugee admissions shutdown.

Practical consequences for families and communities:

• Parents balancing everyday tasks (school drop-offs, hospital visits) against the risk of ICE encounters.
• Lawful residents skipping medical checkups or moving to avoid ID checks, increasing stress that spills into classrooms and workplaces.
• The travel ban creating uncertainty for families with approved petitions and delaying hiring for employers with candidates from affected nations.
• Students and researchers facing additional hurdles and longer vetting times; humanitarian groups halted by suspended refugee processing.

Despite these effects, enforcement continues to scale up. ICE, CBP, and DHS report more raids and faster case processing supported by new staff and detention space. Attorneys warn that pressured timelines can increase errors — mistaken arrests or missed relief claims. Legal challenges are underway over the constitutionality of indefinite detention, the reach of travel restrictions, and changes to humanitarian protections in the law.

Forecasts, politics, and what to watch

The CBO’s baseline shapes budget debates on Capitol Hill, but it is not the only forecast. Key points going forward:

• If reduced immigration persists, the labor pool will tighten further, potentially accelerating the date when aging alone shrinks the workforce.
• Consequences may include lower productivity, weaker tax receipts, higher wage growth, and upward pressure on prices.
• The White House frames the shift as a trade-off for security; critics warn of a long-run risk of a slower, more expensive economy with fewer paths for family unity.

Political and legal developments to monitor:

1. Possible expansion of the travel ban to more countries if returns aren’t accepted by foreign governments.
2. Lawsuits testing detention policies, travel restrictions, and changes to humanitarian protections.
3. Varied state and local responses — from cooperation to legal pushback.

Practical advice for affected groups:

• Prepare for longer waits, higher fees, and added screening.
• Universities and hospitals should anticipate staffing gaps as fewer international students and professionals arrive, especially in rural areas and smaller cities.

Where to find the official analysis

For the full CBO analysis, demographic tables, and technical details, see the CBO’s immigration page: CBO immigration resources. The agency’s materials summarize revised assumptions on net migration and fertility and show how those inputs affect labor force growth, the federal budget, GDP, and inflation paths over time.

For now, the numbers point in one direction: the population will grow more slowly, the workforce will expand less, and the risk of higher inflation and lower GDP will rise if the squeeze on migration holds. Whether Congress revisits the approach or courts trim parts of the law, the near-term planning assumption for employers, schools, and city halls is tighter labor and thinner pipelines of new residents. As the CBO put it, fewer people means a smaller economy than America would otherwise have.

Economists will track net immigration this fall, comparing the CBO baseline to the San Francisco Fed’s lower real-time estimate. For families, the timelines are personal: jobs, schools, and reunions hinge on policy choices made in Washington.