Is H-1B in Trouble? Trump’s Proposed Reforms and What They Mean

(UNITED STATES) The H-1B visa program faces its sharpest shift in years as the Trump administration moves to remake how scarce visas are awarded, with a proposed wage-based selection system now under review and broader tightening measures signaled for late 2025 into 2026. As of August 29, 2025, no final rule has taken effect. But policy filings, agency actions, and the administration’s public posture point to a clear direction: prioritizing higher-paid roles, restoring strict reviews, and narrowing benefits tied to H-1B status.

The centerpiece is a rule to change the H-1B lottery into a wage-ranked selection that favors petitions offering higher salaries. The Department of Homeland Security received the proposal in July and revealed it publicly in August. USCIS has also sent related regulations to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), a step that signals the administration’s intent to move quickly. If finalized, this approach would tilt selections toward well-funded tech and AI jobs and reduce chances for entry-level roles, colleges, hospitals, and smaller companies that can’t match top-tier pay.

Officials are also preparing to remove deference to prior approvals—meaning a past H-1B approval won’t carry the same weight at renewal—and to expand audits, Requests for Evidence (RFEs), and site visits. That would raise employer costs and compliance risk. During President Trump’s first term, similar steps pushed H-1B denial rates for new cases as high as 24%, compared with 2–4% under President Biden. Immigration attorneys widely expect denial rates to climb again if the current agenda is carried out.

The administration is likely to revive another flashpoint from 2017–2020: ending H-4 EAD, the work permit for certain H-1B spouses. That change would hit two-income families hard, especially in high-cost regions where a single salary often isn’t enough. It would also reduce the appeal of the United States 🇺🇸 for mid-career professionals who move as a family unit.

What remains unchanged for now

• The annual H-1B cap still stands at 85,000 visas: 65,000 under the regular cap and 20,000 for holders of advanced U.S. degrees.
• Routine visa services continue at U.S. consulates, though applicants should expect closer document checks and tougher interviews.
• In fiscal year 2024, roughly 400,000 H-1B applications were approved, and about 65% were renewals—showing the program supports ongoing jobs as much as new hires.

Policy changes under review — quick overview

• The Department of Homeland Security has proposed a shift to wage-based selection for H-1B quota cases: petitions offering higher pay would be chosen first.
• USCIS has sent related rules to OMB, signaling a potentially fast timeline; officials and attorneys expect final action by late 2025 or early 2026 if reviews proceed smoothly.
• The administration is prepared to tighten definitions of “specialty occupation”, the core test for H-1B eligibility. Narrower readings tend to create more denials and RFEs.
• Agencies are likely to scrap deference to prior approvals, bringing back line-by-line reviews even for long-running roles. Companies should brace for more audits and site visits.
• Officials have signaled interest in ending H-4 EAD, removing work rights for many spouses of H-1B workers.

None of these changes are final yet. But the direction is clear, and employers are already planning as if selection and review standards will become stricter.

Impact on applicants and employers

Employers

• Higher payroll costs: Expect to increase wages to stay competitive under a wage-based selection system.
• More compliance burden: Prepare for heavier documentation and more RFEs, audits, and site visits.
• Smaller firms: Likely to be squeezed out unless they offer stronger wage packages or file earlier.
• Practical preparations:
  1. Keep detailed job descriptions, org charts, and wage evidence ready.
  2. Consider early filing strategies and counsel partnerships.
  3. Review budgets and hiring calendars with possible higher wage demands in mind.

H-1B workers

• Early-career professionals will face a steeper climb to secure initial H-1B status if starting pay is lower than senior-level rates.
• Renewals and transfers may get tougher if deference is removed. Gather updated degrees, credential evaluations, and proof that daily duties still require a specific bachelor’s degree or higher.
• H-4 spouses: Watch the policy space and plan for a possible end to work authorization—consider savings plans and alternate immigration/status options.

U.S. competitiveness

• Supporters argue a high-wage focus directs visas to top talent and protects U.S. workers from underpayment.
• Critics warn it would shut out teaching hospitals, public universities, community health centers, and small businesses that cannot pay Silicon Valley-level salaries but perform vital public-interest work.
• Employers note that both senior experts and early-career workers are needed; a strict wage ladder could weaken the talent pipeline and prompt skilled graduates to go to Canada or Europe.

Practical examples and scenarios

• A biomedical engineer at a state university hospital may be priced out by wage-first ranking, even though her role supports patient care research.
• A robotics graduate on Optional Practical Training (OPT) might miss selection because an entry-level salary is lower than that of a senior AI scientist, despite strong skills and a promising job at a small firm.

Current filing mechanics — what to expect if changes take effect

• The current registration process remains in place: employers must register H-1B candidates electronically and include valid passport details.
• If a wage-based selection rule becomes final, the order of selection will follow pay levels, not chance.
• Once selected, the employer files Form I-129 with USCIS — available at Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker — with detailed support, such as:
  • Labor Condition Application (LCA)
  • Degree proof
  • A precise duties list tying the role to a specific field of study
• Applicants abroad proceed to consular interviews; posts remain open but may apply stricter checks and have longer waits.

Practical steps to reduce risk now

• File H-1B extensions and transfers early to avoid stricter future rules.
• Start employment-based green card filings sooner where eligible, especially PERM and I-140 stages, to lock in priority dates.
• Explore alternatives like O-1 for individuals with strong achievements or EB-5 for those with capital and business plans.
• Tighten job descriptions: Make them specific and closely tied to a field of study to reduce RFE risk.
• Keep documents current: Degrees, evaluations, employment history, and organizational evidence should be ready.

Historical context

• Between 2017 and 2020, agencies narrowed specialty occupation readings and raised evidence requirements; denial rates soared.
• Under President Biden, USCIS restored deference to prior approvals and kept H-4 EAD intact, and approval rates rebounded.
• The 2025 agenda signals a return to stricter readings with a new twist: ranking H-1B selections by wage rather than chance.

Arguments for and against the change

• Supporters say:
  • It rewards employers who pay more.
  • It focuses visas on high-impact positions in AI, chip design, and advanced software.
  • It sets a clear market-based standard.
• Critics say:
  • Many critical jobs (K–12 STEM support, rural healthcare, university labs) don’t come with high salaries yet still require deep skills.
  • Small businesses and public institutions could be shut out.
  • Families could be harmed if H-4 EAD is rescinded—spouses may stop working and lose professional momentum and retirement contributions.

Rulemaking timeline and where to watch for updates

• The wage-based selection rule and related changes must clear the federal rulemaking process before taking effect.
• Attorneys currently expect possible implementation in late 2025 or early 2026 if the administration keeps its pace, but timelines can shift.
• Rely on official sources for updates. USCIS maintains a central H-1B page with program guidance and news at the USCIS H-1B Specialty Occupations portal.

For now, the H-1B program is not suspended and not abolished. But it is poised for major restriction if the Trump administration completes its plans.

Bottom line and recommended actions

• Prepare now: Those who act early—by keeping clean records, strengthening wage offers, and filing timely—will be better positioned if wage-based selection becomes the rule.
• Plan alternatives: Workers should consider backup options and speak with counsel about filing strategies that fit their goals.
• Employers should review budgets, hiring timelines, and compliance practices to withstand more audits, RFEs, and site visits.

Change is coming, but there’s still time to prepare. Those who wait may find the door much narrower, with more checks at every step and fewer second chances.