Trump Says U.S. College System Could Fail as International Arrivals Decline

(UNITED STATES) International student arrivals to the United States 🇺🇸 have dropped sharply heading into the 2025–26 academic year, just as the administration moves to cap the length of foreign student visas and tighten checks on certain nationalities.

On August 27–28, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unveiled a proposed rule to end the long‑standing “duration of status” policy for F and J students and replace it with a fixed four‑year limit, with any extra time requiring an extension request to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). At the same time, President Trump warned that “our college system would go to hell” if the decline continues, even as he backs tougher rules and closer vetting—especially for Chinese students.

Immediate impacts and enrollment declines

University leaders say the timing is painful. International student enrollment in postgraduate programs is already down 13% for 2025–26 compared with last year, according to higher education groups tracking fall confirmations.

The State Department confirmed it revoked more than 6,000 student visas in May 2025 for reasons that include criminal activity and national security concerns. The combined effect of falling arrivals and a pending limit on stays is forcing schools to rethink budgets, staffing, and long‑planned research projects that depend on global talent.

What the DHS proposal would change

Under the DHS proposal:

• The duration of status framework would end. Students would no longer be admitted for as long as they maintain full‑time enrollment.
• Instead, students would receive a fixed period of admission—no more than four years—to finish their program.
• If more time is needed, students must request an extension from USCIS, which would include:
  • Regular reviews
  • Expanded social media screening
  • Additional checks by DHS

DHS says the changes will curb “visa abuse,” stop indefinite stays, and improve oversight. University leaders counter that the policy will push students to other countries with more predictable rules, reduce research output, and strain campus finances already hurt by declining foreign enrollment.

The politics around China and student flows

The administration’s approach toward China is central to the debate:

• Roughly 300,000 Chinese nationals currently study in the U.S.
• President Trump has floated accepting up to 600,000 Chinese students, arguing they are essential to U.S. higher education and trade talks with Beijing.
• Many conservative lawmakers and immigration groups oppose expanding Chinese student numbers, citing espionage risks and concerns about displacing American students.

In June, the President issued a proclamation blocking foreign nationals from enrolling in or joining exchange programs at Harvard University over security concerns and alleged ties to the Chinese Communist Party. DHS officials point to earlier measures—tighter background checks and revived scrutiny—aimed at national security.

Global competition and consequences

Analysts say the policy mix sends mixed signals to students choosing between the U.S. and rivals:

• The United Kingdom, Japan, and others have boosted scholarships and research funding to attract those deterred by U.S. rules.
• VisaVerge.com analysis indicates schools that depend on international tuition face an uneven field: they rely on full‑fee payers to keep programs open, yet uncertainty during admissions can chill demand.

Leaders at the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration warn that fewer overseas students could mean:

• Program closures
• Fewer research assistants
• Reduced aid for American students

Historical context and rulemaking timeline

The proposed DHS rule would mark a major break with more than four decades of practice:

• The duration of status framework (created in 1978) let F and J students stay as long as they complied with program rules and remained enrolled full time.
• The Trump administration first tried to end this policy in 2020; the effort was withdrawn by the Biden administration in 2021 after pushback.
• The White House has now revived and expanded the plan with a hard cap and new screening tools.

If finalized after the public comment period, the four‑year limit could take effect in late 2025 or early 2026, leaving schools little time to adjust.

Arguments for and against the cap

Supporters argue:

• A fixed limit is more transparent than an open‑ended stay.
• It gives DHS clearer points to check student progress, security, and compliance.
• It helps fight fraud and reduces long periods where students fall out of status.

Critics counter:

• The plan will likely clog USCIS with extension requests and create backlogs that disrupt study plans.
• Many degrees and research programs, especially Ph.D.s, run longer than four years; forcing extensions introduces extra cost and anxiety.
• Low denial rates could still cause disruption if the sheer volume of filings is high.

Financial and research stakes for campuses

Numbers show the stakes are high:

• International students typically pay higher tuition and receive fewer scholarships.
• Public universities say those funds keep departments afloat.
• Private schools beyond the top tier also rely on foreign enrollment to balance budgets.

With graduate seats down 13%, some institutions have:

• Paused new lab hires
• Considered cutting course offerings

Business groups warn that fewer master’s and Ph.D. students will reduce U.S. companies’ research teams, lower patent output, and slow startup formation.

Advocacy groups model that, without immigrants and international students:

• The undergraduate population could be 5 million students smaller by 2037 (a two‑thirds reduction).
• Graduate numbers could fall by 1.1 million, down to about 60% of current levels.

States and university systems that depend on international student arrivals—especially those with regional campuses—are preparing for deeper declines if the cap is implemented.

Screening changes and visa revocations

Rules on visa issuance and checks have already narrowed some pipelines:

• The May 2025 visa revocations included cases tied to criminal offenses and national security flags detected during screening.
• DHS says it has expanded social media checks and deeper background reviews for certain fields and nationalities.
• Programs in advanced engineering and computer science face longer review times and more document requests—delays that can push admits to other countries.

How campuses and students are preparing

Even though the rule is still a proposal, schools and students are acting as if it will become final:

• Designated school officials (DSOs) are briefing incoming cohorts on the possibility of a four‑year cap and the need to file for extensions if programs run longer.
• Many F‑1 students may need to file Form I‑539, Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status, with USCIS and show good academic standing and need for more time.
• J‑1 exchange visitors would work with sponsors; some may also use USCIS if admitted under a fixed date.
• Students on Optional Practical Training (OPT) use Form I‑765, Application for Employment Authorization, and are watching how fixed admission periods could affect OPT start dates and STEM extensions.

Practical DSO guidance includes:

• Keep all records current
• Enroll full time
• Save proof of academic progress for possible extensions
• Plan early for programs likely to exceed four years
• Consult faculty on realistic dissertation or lab timelines

Schools are training staff on how to prepare strong extension packets, identify cases needing extra time, and advise on travel when admission periods near the four‑year mark. Employers hiring students on OPT want clarity on how fixed admission periods might affect start dates and the 24‑month STEM extension.

Legislative and advocacy responses

Some schools are lobbying Congress and DHS for relief valves:

• Automatic extensions for students in good standing
• Faster processing for dissertation‑completion cases
• Targeted, risk‑based checks instead of blanket limits

Business groups want clear timelines so companies can plan hiring and training. Advocacy groups argue that the open‑ended duration of status worked for decades and that abuse can be addressed with focused enforcement, not a blanket cap.

What to watch in the final rule

As the public comment period proceeds, stakeholders hope the final text will address:

• Treatment for students in fields that commonly run longer than four years
• Processes for automatic short extensions for those in good standing
• How dependents are treated under fixed admission periods
• How travel in and out of the country interacts with fixed admission dates
• What counts as proof of “normal progress” when filing an extension

For official guidance on student categories and work options, USCIS maintains a page for students and exchange visitors that schools often reference during advising. Readers can review those basics at the USCIS Students and Exchange Visitors page.

If the four‑year cap is finalized, many F‑1 and some J applicants who need more time would likely use Form I‑539, Application to Extend/Change Nonimmigrant Status to request an extension with USCIS; the form and filing instructions are available at the official Form I‑539 page. Students applying for work authorization under OPT or the STEM extension still use Form I‑765, Application for Employment Authorization, found at Form I‑765. DSOs caution students to check the latest instructions before filing and to stay in close contact with their school’s international office.

Important: The rule is still a proposal. Stakeholders should monitor DHS announcements and the public comment period for changes that could alter how the four‑year cap is applied.

Campus and student perspectives

Students and faculty report real anxiety:

• A Ph.D. candidate who started in 2023 says a four‑year cap would hit midway through planned dissertation work, forcing an uncertain extension.
• A master’s student in computer science worries the change will complicate her OPT timeline and job search.
• Faculty fear losing research assistants as projects reach key stages.
• Admissions teams report hesitancy among applicants from countries that value long‑term planning.

Despite uncertainty, many students still value the U.S. research model and corporate links. Universities are responding by:

• Offering clearer degree maps
• Holding earlier dissertation committees
• Strengthening advising to reduce surprises near four years
• Building partnerships with overseas schools so students can start research abroad if visa delays occur, then transfer in when cleared

These are patchwork measures driven by a moving policy target.

Bottom line

The coming months will determine whether the U.S. finalizes a stricter regime or adjusts parts of the proposal after industry feedback. What is already clear:

• Campuses face pressure as international student arrivals fall and fixed admission periods loom.
• The administration frames tighter rules as necessary for security and control.
• Universities, families, and employers seek clear rules that protect security without closing doors to the students who contribute substantially to American higher education and the economy.