Trump aides are moving quickly to overhaul the H-1B visa program, pressing for a shift from the current lottery-based selection to a wage-based system that favors higher-paid roles and advanced skill sets. As of August 27, 2025, officials in the Trump administration say the existing random draw is unfair and open to abuse, and they aim to replace it with a process that ranks registrations by offered salary.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has described the lottery as a “scam,” and he has publicly backed a merit-focused, wage-driven approach that, if finalized, would reshape how employers in the United States 🇺🇸 hire foreign professionals. A draft rule to enable wage-based ranking cleared review at the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs this month, signaling that a rollout could arrive soon—possibly in time to affect the next cap season.
Recent DHS / USCIS Changes (January 2025)
The Department of Homeland Security implemented a separate package of H-1B changes that took effect on January 17, 2025, described as a modernization effort to:
- Boost program integrity
- Sharpen definitions around specialty occupations
- Make room for carefully structured entrepreneur cases
Those updates coexist with the administration’s broader goal: ending or limiting the lottery-based process and replacing it with a wage-based allocation that prioritizes the highest offers first. In practical terms, that would tilt selections toward well-funded employers and advanced roles, and away from entry-level jobs and modest salary bands.
Supporters say the change would ensure visas go to the “best and brightest” and protect U.S. wages. Critics argue it would sideline recent graduates, strain universities and hospitals, and concentrate access among the largest tech firms.
How the Proposed Wage-Based System Would Work
If the wage model arrives as expected, H-1B selection may soon become a pay-driven competition:
- Registrations would be ranked by offered salary, not drawn randomly.
- Employers able to offer higher salaries would likely win more spots.
- Small businesses, early-stage startups, and public institutions with constrained budgets could see their chances drop.
Immigration attorneys warn this would change long-standing hiring strategies, campus recruiting, and workforce planning—especially for essential roles that are not among the highest paid. Analysis by VisaVerge.com indicates the administration’s intent to filter H-1B approvals toward elite, high-pay positions while tightening compliance across the board.
Beneficiary-Centric Registration and Other Mechanics
Under the current USCIS framework:
- The annual cap season still runs using the registration system.
- The beneficiary-centric rules effective in January mean each individual can be counted only once in any drawing, regardless of how many companies register them.
- This was designed to curb duplicate entries and reduce the advantage of multiple job offers.
- The proposed wage-based rules would go further, reordering selection around salary levels and placing a premium on compensation rather than the luck of a draw.
Officials contend this would discourage abuse and deter employers who keep wages low. Universities, community hospitals, nonprofit research labs, and small consulting firms worry they will be outbid, even when they offer critical roles.
Compliance and Integrity Measures
USCIS and DHS emphasize stepped-up integrity efforts:
- More site visits to verify H-1B workers perform duties and receive listed wages
- Stricter audits and requests for evidence probing day-to-day duties, wage levels, and work locations
- Continued enforcement that H-1B remains a temporary category for specialty occupations—roles requiring highly specific knowledge and typically a bachelor’s degree (or equivalent experience)
The January DHS rule also broadened flexibility in how education and experience can demonstrate a match with the role, allowing adjudicators greater discretion where equivalent experience aligns with job requirements.
Important: Employers using third-party worksites should expect deeper scrutiny—officers will ask who supervises the worker and how specialized duties are controlled.
Leadership Push and Political Context
Commerce Secretary Lutnick has taken a prominent role advocating to end the lottery. The administration’s preferred redesign would favor top-tier technical positions and advanced roles in finance, engineering, and computer science. They cite past spikes in H-1B denials during President Trump’s first term (around 24% denial rates) as evidence of needed oversight, contrasted with lower denial rates under President Biden (around 2–4%).
The broader policy blueprint behind these changes is Project 2025, which envisions an “elite” H-1B program focused on high wages and strict compliance. Legal challenges are likely once any final rule is published, with universities, immigrant advocates, and business groups already signaling opposition.
Key Features of the January 2025 Rule (Summary)
- Beneficiary-centric registration: one entry per person, even if multiple employers register them
- Updated specialty occupation guidance: more flexibility in how education and experience combine to meet job requirements
- Expanded entrepreneur pathways: limited self-sponsorship for founders who can demonstrate ownership, control, and independent oversight
- Stronger oversight: additional site inspections and post-approval checks to reduce fraud
Impact on Employers and Workers
A wage-based selection would rearrange incentives across the labor market.
For employers:
– Budget pressure: Companies may need to raise offers to compete, increasing labor costs.
– Compliance risk: More documentation required—job duties, wages, locations, and third-party contracts will be scrutinized.
– Timing & planning: Recruiting may shift toward fewer, higher-paid roles; campus pipelines for entry-level hires could shrink.
– Public sector & academia: Fixed pay scales could hamper universities, public research centers, and hospitals.
For foreign professionals:
– Recent graduates & early-career workers could face higher barriers due to lower starting salaries.
– Entrepreneurs have clearer paths but still face challenges unless their startups can offer competitive pay.
– Families may experience uncertainty if H-4 Employment Authorization Documents face renewed limits—advocates expect debates on scaling back H-4 work authorization.
Example scenarios:
– A new computer science graduate with a modest hospital offer could be outranked by higher-paid private-sector roles.
– A state university lab may lose out to semiconductor firms that can pay more—even if the lab advances national science priorities.
Sectoral Concerns and Criticisms
Supporters argue wage-based selection will:
– Reduce incentives to underpay foreign workers
– Protect U.S. workers from low-salary staffing models
– Pair visas with scarcity and market value
Critics counter that salary is a blunt filter that:
– Undervalues essential, lower-paid roles in healthcare, education, and research
– Harms entry-level hiring that fuels long-term innovation
– Skews incentives for candidates to seek the highest salary rather than best fit
– Concentrates access in wealthier sectors and regions
Practical Filing Details
- USCIS now accepts only the current edition of Form I-129 for H-1B petitions. Use the updated form and instructions.
- For official program information, consult:
Timeline and What Happens Next
- Draft wage-based rule: Cleared OIRA review in August 2025; administration expected to finalize soon.
- DHS modernization rule: Effective January 17, 2025.
- Filing mechanics: USCIS accepts only the latest
Form I-129. - Cap season planning: Employers should prepare for the possibility of a wage-focused ranking before the next registration window.
- Potential litigation: Business groups, universities, and immigrant advocates are likely to sue if the final rule mirrors the administration’s current approach.
Practical Steps for Employers and Applicants
- Audit job descriptions now — spell out specialized duties, required knowledge, and how a candidate’s background fits.
- Review salaries with HR and finance — determine whether key roles justify higher offers.
- Strengthen compliance files — organize records of work locations, managerial oversight, and daily tasks; be ready for site visits.
- For founders — shore up governance to show genuine employer–employee relationships, with independent oversight.
- Monitor official channels and prepare to act quickly if the final rule is published before the next registration period.
Final Considerations
The debate blends economics, fairness, and national competitiveness. A wage-based system could reward high-skill, high-pay roles and tighten integrity, but it also risks narrowing opportunity for early-career professionals and public-interest institutions.
From a human perspective:
– A biomedical researcher with modest offers may be ranked below major pharma roles.
– A rural hospital could lose candidates to urban centers with higher pay.
– Machine-learning engineers with multiple high-paying offers may become targets for employers wanting to secure selection odds.
The outcome hinges on the final regulatory text and timing. If the wage-based rule is finalized before the next cap season, the shift from lottery to wage ranking will be abrupt. If it comes later, the beneficiary-centric lottery will likely run again while the wage rule follows. Regardless, stronger oversight, site visits, and accurate filings will remain central to the H-1B program going forward.
This Article in a Nutshell
A draft wage-based H-1B selection cleared OIRA in August 2025; if finalized it will rank registrations by salary, favoring high-paying employers and increasing compliance scrutiny. DHS’s January 17, 2025 rule made registrations beneficiary-centric and broadened specialty-occupation flexibility. Employers should ready job descriptions, wages, and documentation.
