Geoff Russ: Data Shows Fewer Newcomers Lead to Lower Canadian Rent

Canada 🇨🇦 has long been known for its welcoming approach to newcomers, but recent changes to immigration policy are reshaping the landscape for both immigrants and residents. As the country moves forward with the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, many are asking how these changes will affect their chances of becoming a permanent resident, the cost of living—especially rent—and the broader economy. This comparison will break down the main options for immigrating to Canada 🇨🇦, focusing on the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and other key pathways, and will examine how new policies and permanent resident targets may influence your decision.

Let’s look at the main immigration options, compare their requirements, timelines, and costs, and help you decide which path might be best for your situation in light of the latest policy changes.

Overview of the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan

The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, announced in October 2024, marks a shift in Canada’s 🇨🇦 approach. The government has set lower permanent resident targets for the next three years:

• 2025: 395,000 new permanent residents
• 2026: 380,000 new permanent residents
• 2027: 365,000 new permanent residents

For the first time, there are also targets for temporary residents, aiming to keep their numbers below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. This includes international students and temporary foreign workers.

These changes are designed to slow population growth, which has been linked to rising housing costs, especially rent. According to analysis from VisaVerge.com, the government hopes that by reducing the number of newcomers, demand for housing will ease, making rent more affordable for everyone.

Main Immigration Pathways Compared

The two most common ways to become a permanent resident in Canada 🇨🇦 are:

1. Express Entry (Federal Skilled Worker, Canadian Experience Class, Federal Skilled Trades)
2. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

Let’s compare these options side by side, considering the new policy environment.

Express Entry

What is it?
Express Entry is a points-based system for skilled workers who want to become permanent residents. It includes three main programs:

• Federal Skilled Worker Program
• Canadian Experience Class
• Federal Skilled Trades Program

Requirements:

• Language skills: Must prove English or French ability (usually through IELTS or TEF tests)
• Education: Must have a recognized diploma, degree, or certificate
• Work experience: At least one year of skilled work experience
• Proof of funds: Must show you have enough money to support yourself and your family (unless you have a valid job offer or are already working in Canada 🇨🇦)
• Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score: You are ranked against other candidates based on age, education, work experience, and language skills

Timeline:

• Profile submission: You can create an Express Entry profile at any time
• Invitation to Apply (ITA): If your CRS score is high enough, you may get an ITA in the next draw (draws happen every few weeks)
• Application processing: After receiving an ITA, you have 60 days to submit your application. Processing usually takes 6 months, but can be longer if there are many applications or policy changes

Costs:

• Language test: About $300 CAD
• Educational Credential Assessment (ECA): About $200 CAD
• Application fee: $1,365 CAD for adults, $230 CAD for children
• Medical exam and police certificates: Varies, but usually $200-$500 CAD
• Proof of funds: Varies depending on family size (for 2025, about $14,000 CAD for a single person)

Pros:

• Fast processing for high-scoring candidates
• No need for a job offer (though it helps your score)
• Open to applicants from anywhere in the world

Cons:

• Highly competitive—lower permanent resident targets mean higher CRS scores may be needed
• No guarantee of invitation, especially with reduced targets
• Proof of funds can be a barrier for some

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

What is it?
The Provincial Nominee Program allows provinces and territories to nominate people who want to live and work in a specific province. Each province has its own streams, often focused on local labor needs.

Recent Changes:
The federal government has reduced PNP allocations by 50% for 2025, but some provinces have negotiated for more spaces. Eligibility now focuses more on in-demand sectors like healthcare and construction.

Requirements:

• Job offer: Many PNP streams require a job offer from an employer in the province
• Work experience: Usually in an occupation that is in demand in that province
• Language skills: Similar to Express Entry, but requirements may vary
• Intention to settle: Must show you plan to live in the province that nominates you
• Other criteria: Some provinces require ties to the province (like previous study or work)

Timeline:

• Application to province: Processing times vary by province, usually 2-6 months
• Nomination: If nominated, you can apply for permanent residence through IRCC
• Permanent residence processing: After nomination, IRCC processing takes about 6-12 months

Costs:

• Provincial application fee: $250-$2,000 CAD, depending on the province
• Federal application fee: Same as Express Entry ($1,365 CAD for adults, $230 CAD for children)
• Other costs: Language tests, medical exams, etc., similar to Express Entry

Pros:

• Lower CRS scores needed if you have a provincial nomination (extra 600 points)
• Focus on specific skills in demand, increasing your chances if you fit the profile
• Some streams are open to people already living in the province as students or workers

Cons:

• Fewer spaces available due to reduced allocations
• Some provinces have stricter requirements or limited streams
• Processing can take longer, especially if there is high demand

Temporary Resident Pathways

While not a direct route to permanent residence, many people come to Canada 🇨🇦 first as temporary residents—international students or temporary foreign workers. The government now aims to keep the total number of temporary residents below 5% of the population by 2027.

Requirements:

• Study permit: Must be accepted by a designated learning institution and show proof of funds
• Work permit: Must have a job offer or be eligible for an open work permit

Timeline:

• Study permit: Usually processed in 2-4 months
• Work permit: Processing times vary, often 2-6 months

Costs:

• Study permit application: $150 CAD
• Work permit application: $155 CAD
• Tuition and living costs: Varies widely

Pros:

• Opportunity to gain Canadian work or study experience
• Some pathways allow transition to permanent residence (e.g., Canadian Experience Class)

Cons:

• New caps on temporary residents may make it harder to get permits
• Not a guaranteed path to permanent residence
• May face higher tuition fees as an international student

Side-by-Side Comparison Table

How Do These Changes Affect Housing and Rent?

The government’s decision to lower permanent resident targets and cap temporary residents is already having an impact on housing. With fewer newcomers arriving, population growth is slowing down. This means less demand for rental housing, which can help stabilize or even lower rent prices in some areas.

However, the effect is not the same everywhere. For example:

• Alberta continues to attract people from other provinces, so rent may stay high there.
• Other provinces with fewer newcomers may see rent prices drop or stabilize.

If you are planning to move to Canada 🇨🇦, it’s important to research the local housing market in your chosen province. Lower immigration numbers may make it easier to find affordable housing in some places, but not everywhere.

Pros and Cons for Different Situations

For Skilled Workers Overseas:

• Express Entry remains the fastest option if you have a high CRS score, but competition is tougher with lower targets.
• PNP is a good choice if you have a job offer or skills in demand in a specific province, but fewer spaces mean you need to act quickly.

For International Students:

• New caps on temporary residents may make it harder to get a study permit.
• If you do study in Canada 🇨🇦, you may have a better chance of finding affordable rent due to slower population growth.

For Employers in Critical Sectors:

• The focus on healthcare and construction in the PNP means it’s easier to hire foreign workers in these fields.
• However, overall reductions in allocations may make it harder to fill positions in other sectors.

For Families:

• Lower permanent resident targets may mean longer wait times for family sponsorship.
• If you already have family in Canada 🇨🇦, check if your province has special PNP streams for family members.

Recommendations Based on Your Situation

• If you have a high CRS score (470+): Apply through Express Entry as soon as possible, as competition is likely to increase.
• If you have a job offer in healthcare or construction: Consider the PNP in a province with high demand for your skills.
• If you are an international student: Apply early and make sure you meet all requirements, as new caps may limit spaces.
• If you are already in Canada 🇨🇦 on a temporary permit: Look for PNP streams that allow you to transition to permanent residence, especially if you work in a priority sector.

Decision-Making Framework

1. Assess Your Profile:
   • What is your CRS score?
   • Do you have a job offer in Canada 🇨🇦?
   • Are your skills in demand in a specific province?
2. Check Provincial Needs:
   • Visit the official government website for up-to-date information on PNP streams and allocations.
   • Research which provinces are still accepting nominations in your field.
3. Consider Timelines and Costs:
   • Can you afford the application fees and proof of funds?
   • How quickly do you need to move?
4. Monitor Policy Updates:
   • The government is still consulting on future immigration levels. Stay informed about changes that may affect your application.
5. Plan for Housing:
   • Research rent prices in your chosen province.
   • Consider whether slower population growth will make housing more affordable where you want to live.

Final Takeaways

Canada’s 🇨🇦 new 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan is changing the rules for newcomers. With lower permanent resident targets and caps on temporary residents, it’s more important than ever to choose the right immigration pathway for your situation. The Provincial Nominee Program remains a strong option for those with in-demand skills, but spaces are limited. Express Entry is still the fastest route for high-scoring skilled workers, but competition is fierce.

If you’re considering moving to Canada 🇨🇦, start by assessing your eligibility, researching provincial needs, and preparing your application early. Keep an eye on policy updates, as the government may adjust targets again based on economic needs and ongoing consultations.

For more details on immigration forms and requirements, visit the official IRCC website. As reported by VisaVerge.com, staying informed and acting quickly can make all the difference in achieving your goal of becoming a permanent resident in Canada 🇨🇦.

Learn Today

Express Entry → Canada’s points-based immigration system for skilled workers seeking permanent residence.
Provincial Nominee Program → Allows provinces to nominate immigrants based on local labor market needs.
Comprehensive Ranking System → Points system ranking Express Entry applicants by age, education, experience, and language skills.
Invitation to Apply → Official notice to submit permanent residence application after meeting points threshold.
Temporary Resident → Individuals in Canada on short-term visas like study or work permits.

This Article in a Nutshell

Canada’s 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan reduces permanent resident targets and temporary residents. Express Entry and Provincial Nominee Program remain key pathways with evolving requirements amid rising housing concerns and competitive admission processes.
— By VisaVerge.com