Key Takeaways
• H-1B denial rates rose to 24% in 2018 under Trump, compared to 2.2% under Biden in 2022.
• FY 2026 H-1B lottery registrations dropped 27% to 358,000 due to stricter rules and fees.
• Indian nationals hold about 75% of H-1B visas and face the most impact from new policies.
The H‑1B visa program has long served as a gateway for highly skilled foreign professionals, especially from India 🇮🇳, to work in the United States 🇺🇸. However, as of July 2025, the landscape for H‑1B applicants has shifted dramatically under the Trump administration’s renewed focus on stricter immigration controls. This analysis examines the current situation, recent policy changes, practical impacts, and future outlook for H‑1B hopefuls, with a special focus on Requests for Evidence (RFEs), denial rates, and the broader implications for both applicants and employers.

Purpose and Scope
This report provides a comprehensive, evidence-based analysis of the H‑1B visa environment as shaped by the Trump administration’s second term. It covers:
- The impact of new rules and enforcement trends on H‑1B applicants, especially Indian professionals
- Quantitative data on denial rates, RFEs, and lottery registrations
- Practical steps and risks for applicants
- Broader industry and policy implications
- Limitations and areas for further monitoring
The goal is to equip readers with clear, actionable information to help them understand and respond to the current H‑1B climate.
Methodology
This analysis draws on:
- Official U.S. government data from USCIS and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
- Policy updates, including the H‑1B Modernization Rule effective January 17, 2025
- Industry reports and expert commentary from immigration attorneys and tech sector leaders
- Trends in H‑1B lottery registrations and denial rates from 2018 to 2026
- Guidance from VisaVerge.com and other reputable immigration sources
All statistics and claims are attributed to their original sources, with links to official government pages where appropriate.
Key Findings
- Denial rates and RFEs have surged under the Trump administration, with initial H‑1B denial rates reaching about 24% in 2018, compared to 2.2% under President Biden.
- Requests for Evidence (RFEs) are more frequent, leading to longer processing times and increased documentation burdens.
- The FY 2026 H‑1B lottery saw a 27% drop in registrations (358,000), reflecting stricter rules and higher fees.
- Indian nationals remain the largest group of H‑1B holders (about 75%), making them the most affected by these changes.
- Employers and applicants face greater unpredictability, especially at consulates and U.S. ports of entry, with increased biometric checks and social media screenings.
- Alternative visa options (such as O‑1 and EB‑5) are gaining attention as H‑1B pathways become less certain.
Data Presentation and Trends
H‑1B Denial Rates and RFEs: A Comparative Overview
Fiscal Year | Administration | Denial Rate | RFE Rate | Notable Policy Changes |
---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | Trump (1st term) | ~24% | High | Stricter specialty occupation, wage rules |
2022 | Biden | 2.2% | Low | Relaxed scrutiny, streamlined processing |
2023 | Biden | 3.5% | Slightly higher | Minor uptick, but still low |
2025 | Trump (2nd term) | Rising | Rising | H‑1B Modernization Rule, more RFEs |
Visual Description:
A line chart would show a sharp spike in denial rates during Trump’s first term, a steep drop under President Biden, and a renewed upward trend starting in 2025. The RFE rate closely follows this pattern, with more RFEs issued during periods of higher scrutiny.
Lottery Registration Trends
- FY 2026: 358,000 registrations (27% decrease from previous year)
- This drop is linked to stricter eligibility criteria, higher filing fees, and increased uncertainty.
Indian H‑1B Holders
- Consistently about 75% of all H‑1B visa holders, making Indian professionals the most impacted by policy changes.
Comparisons, Patterns, and Evidence-Based Conclusions
Comparing Trump and Biden Administrations
- Trump administration: Focused on tightening eligibility, increasing documentation requirements, and limiting approvals for roles deemed less “specialized.” This led to higher denial rates and more RFEs.
- Biden administration: Reversed many restrictive policies, resulting in lower denial rates and faster processing.
- Trump’s return in 2025: Marked by a quick reintroduction of stricter rules, as seen in the H‑1B Modernization Rule and a spike in RFEs and denials.
Patterns
- RFEs as a Gatekeeping Tool: The use of Requests for Evidence has become a primary way for USCIS to scrutinize applications. RFEs often request proof that the job meets the “specialty occupation” standard, that the employer-employee relationship is genuine, and that the applicant’s degree matches the job requirements.
- Third-Party Placements Under Fire: IT consulting and staffing firms that place workers at client sites face more hurdles, with approvals often limited to one-year increments and extra documentation required.
- Consular and Port-of-Entry Risks: Even after USCIS approval, applicants face tough questioning and biometric checks at consulates and U.S. entry points. Social media and travel history are now part of the review process, leading to more visa cancellations and entry denials.
Evidence-Based Conclusions
- Applicants must prepare for a longer, more uncertain process. Even premium processing does not guarantee speed, as RFEs and additional checks can cause delays.
- Legal counsel is more important than ever. Immigration lawyers report unpredictable outcomes, especially for smaller companies without in-house legal teams.
- Employers are rethinking their hiring strategies. The drop in lottery registrations and increased denials are slowing tech hiring and raising concerns about the United States 🇺🇸 losing its edge in innovation.
Step-by-Step H‑1B Application Process Under Current Rules
- Employer Registration:
Employers must register electronically for the H‑1B lottery during the official window. Details are available on the USCIS H‑1B page. -
Lottery Selection:
If registrations exceed the annual cap, USCIS runs a random lottery to select eligible employers. -
Petition Filing:
Selected employers file Form I‑129 with supporting documents, including proof that the job is a specialty occupation and that the employer-employee relationship is real. -
USCIS Review and RFEs:
USCIS reviews the petition. If more information is needed, they issue a Request for Evidence (RFE), which must be answered quickly and thoroughly. -
Consular Processing:
Applicants outside the United States 🇺🇸 attend a visa interview at a U.S. consulate, where biometric data is collected. -
Entry to the United States 🇺🇸:
Upon visa approval, applicants undergo inspection at the port of entry, including possible biometric and social media checks. -
Start of Employment:
Once admitted, employees must keep records proving ongoing employment, such as recent pay stubs and employer letters.
Practical Implications for Applicants
Documentation and Legal Support
- Robust documentation is essential. Applicants must show that their degree and job duties clearly fit the specialty occupation definition.
- Work with experienced immigration attorneys. Legal experts can help respond to RFEs and prepare for unpredictable consular interviews.
- Employers should expect more delays. Even premium processing may not prevent slowdowns if RFEs are issued.
Travel and Entry Risks
- Minimize international travel. Tech companies are advising employees to avoid overseas trips due to the risk of visa cancellation or denial upon return.
- Always carry proof of employment. This includes recent pay stubs, employer letters, and approval notices (I‑129/I‑797).
- Prepare for detailed questioning. Biometric screenings and social media checks are now common at U.S. ports of entry.
Alternative Visa Options
- O‑1 visa: For individuals with extraordinary ability in their field. This visa is less common but can be a backup for highly accomplished professionals.
- EB‑5 visa: For those able to invest a significant amount in a U.S. business, leading to permanent residency.
- Other options: Depending on the applicant’s background, other work visas may be available, but all have their own requirements and risks.
Broader Trends and Industry Impact
- Tech industry slowdown: Surging RFEs and visa uncertainty are making it harder for U.S. companies to hire top talent, especially in technology and engineering.
- Concerns over innovation: Industry leaders warn that the United States 🇺🇸 may lose its competitive edge if skilled foreign workers are deterred by the complex H‑1B process.
- Employer caution: The sharp drop in lottery registrations suggests that both employers and applicants are becoming more cautious, possibly seeking opportunities in other countries.
Limitations of This Analysis
- Rapid policy changes: Immigration rules can change quickly, especially with new executive orders or court decisions. This analysis reflects the situation as of July 2025.
- Data lags: Some statistics, such as denial rates and RFE frequencies, may not capture the most recent months.
- Individual circumstances vary: Each applicant’s situation is unique. Legal advice tailored to specific cases is always recommended.
Official Resources and Further Reading
- For the most current information on H‑1B visa requirements, forms, and updates, visit the USCIS H‑1B Specialty Occupations page.
- For official visa services and consular procedures, see travel.state.gov.
- For details on the H‑1B Modernization Rule and related policy updates, consult the Federal Register or DHS website.
Conclusion and Actionable Guidance
The H‑1B visa process in 2025 is marked by stricter scrutiny, more frequent Requests for Evidence, and longer processing times under the Trump administration. Indian professionals, who make up the majority of H‑1B applicants, face the greatest challenges. To improve their chances:
- Prepare thorough documentation that clearly matches the specialty occupation criteria.
- Work closely with experienced immigration attorneys to respond to RFEs and prepare for interviews.
- Minimize international travel and always carry proof of ongoing employment.
- Consider alternative visa options like the O‑1 or EB‑5 if the H‑1B path becomes too uncertain.
Employers should also be ready for more delays and unpredictability, especially if they rely on placing workers at third-party sites. The drop in lottery registrations and rising denial rates point to a more challenging environment for both applicants and U.S. companies.
As reported by VisaVerge.com, staying informed and proactive is the best way to manage these risks. For the latest updates and official guidance, always refer to the USCIS H‑1B page and consult with qualified legal professionals.
By understanding the current trends and preparing accordingly, applicants and employers can better navigate the evolving H‑1B landscape and make informed decisions about their immigration strategies.
Learn Today
H-1B visa → A U.S. visa allowing skilled foreign professionals to work in specialty occupations temporarily.
Request for Evidence (RFE) → A USCIS request for additional information to support an H-1B visa petition.
USCIS → United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, responsible for adjudicating visa petitions.
H-1B Modernization Rule → 2025 regulation tightening documentation and enforcement in the H-1B visa process.
Lottery registration → A random selection process when H-1B visa applications exceed the annual numeric limit.
This Article in a Nutshell
The H-1B visa process tightened dramatically by 2025, with more denials and evidence requests, affecting Indian professionals largely. Employers and applicants face delays and uncertainty, prompting many to consider alternatives like O-1 and EB-5 visas amid evolving U.S. immigration policies under the Trump administration’s renewed controls.
— By VisaVerge.com