Key Takeaways
• Marc De Vos addressed ACI Europe Congress on June 19, 2025, about challenges facing European aviation.
• EU’s Fit for 55 and Destination 2050 policies push aviation to cut emissions and buy full ETS allowances by 2026.
• Geopolitical shifts and stricter climate rules threaten air connectivity and increase costs for airlines and airports.
On June 19, 2025, Marc De Vos, Co-CEO of the Itinera Institute, delivered a major address at the ACI Europe Annual Congress and General Assembly in Athens. His speech came at a time when European aviation faces some of its biggest challenges in decades. De Vos’s analysis, presented to hundreds of airport leaders and policymakers, focused on how global political changes and new economic barriers are reshaping the future of European aviation. He called for urgent action by both the European Union and the aviation sector to adapt to these changes and protect Europe’s air connectivity.
Why European Aviation Is at a Turning Point
European aviation has always depended on open borders, close economic ties, and easy movement between countries. For years, travelers, businesses, and families have enjoyed seamless connections across the continent and beyond. But according to Marc De Vos and ACI Europe, the world is changing fast. The rise of new global power blocs, trade barriers, and stricter climate rules are making it harder for airlines and airports to operate as they did before.
Marc De Vos explained that:
– The world is becoming “multipolar,” meaning power is spread across several big players like the United States 🇺🇸, China, and the European Union 🇪🇺.
– Countries are putting up more trade barriers and focusing on their own regions, which can break up the global networks that aviation relies on.
– These changes threaten the smooth air travel and strong connections that have helped Europe’s economy and society for decades.
Geopolitical Shifts: What’s Changing and Why It Matters
De Vos’s speech at ACI Europe 2025 highlighted that the old global order—where countries worked together closely and trade flowed freely—is breaking down. Instead, we now see:
– Shifting alliances: Countries are forming new partnerships, sometimes leaving out traditional allies.
– Increased competition: The United States 🇺🇸, China, and the European Union 🇪🇺 are all trying to protect their own interests, which can lead to more rules and restrictions.
– Economic fragmentation: Instead of one big global market, we now have several smaller, competing markets.
For European aviation, this means more uncertainty. Airlines and airports must deal with new rules, changing demand, and possible disruptions to supply chains. As reported by VisaVerge.com, these changes could make it harder for people and goods to move freely, which is a big risk for Europe’s economy and its people.
Security and Resilience: Protecting the Skies
One of the main topics at the ACI Europe 2025 event was security. The panel “Time for a Reset in Aviation Security & Resilience” showed that industry leaders are worried about both old and new threats. These include:
– Geopolitical risks: Conflicts or tensions between countries can affect flight routes, airport operations, and passenger safety.
– Cyber threats: As airports and airlines use more technology, they become targets for hackers who could disrupt flights or steal data.
Marc De Vos and ACI Europe stressed that the aviation sector must invest in stronger security systems and be ready to respond quickly to new threats. This means updating technology, training staff, and working closely with governments and international partners.
Climate Policy and Decarbonization: The Push for Greener Aviation
Another major focus of De Vos’s speech was climate change. The European Union 🇪🇺 has set tough goals for cutting carbon emissions, and aviation is under pressure to do its part. Two key policies are shaping the future:
– “Fit for 55” package: This is the EU’s plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
– Destination 2050 roadmap: This aims for net zero CO₂ emissions from all flights leaving EU, UK, and EFTA airports by 2050.
To reach these goals, the European Commission has changed the rules for the Emissions Trading System (ETS) for aviation. The ETS is a system where airlines must buy permits (called “allowances”) for the carbon they emit. The new rules mean:
– Free allowances are being phased out: Airlines used to get some permits for free, but now they must buy more of them each year.
– By 2026, all allowances must be bought at auction: This will increase costs for airlines, especially those flying within Europe.
The EU has also set aside 20 million ETS allowances (worth about €1.6 billion) to help cover the extra cost of using greener aviation fuels. This support is especially strong for small and remote airports, which can get up to 100% of the price difference covered if they use eligible alternative fuels.
How ETS Policy Changes Affect Airlines: A Step-by-Step Guide
The changes to the ETS system will happen in stages:
- 2024: Airlines lose 25% of their free allowances.
- 2025: The cut increases to 50%.
- 2026: Airlines must buy all their allowances at auction—no more free permits.
- Alternative fuels: From January 2024, airlines can get financial support for using greener fuels, with the amount depending on airport size and fuel type.
This means airlines will face higher costs each year, especially if they do not switch to cleaner fuels or more efficient planes.
The Numbers: What the Data Shows
The European Commission and ACI Europe have shared some important numbers about what these changes mean:
- Fare increases: By 2050, ticket prices could go up by 17% at regional airports and 5% for connecting flights through EU hubs.
- Demand reduction: The higher costs are expected to reduce passenger numbers by 12% at regional airports and 9% at EU hubs.
- Risk of “leakage”: If flying within Europe becomes too expensive, people might choose flights from airports outside the EU, which could actually increase global emissions.
- Support for alternative fuels: Small airports can get up to 100% of the extra cost covered, while larger airports get between 50% and 95% depending on the type of fuel.
Who’s Affected? Key Stakeholders and Their Concerns
1. Airlines and ACI Europe
Airlines support the goal of cutting emissions but warn that higher costs could hurt their ability to compete with non-EU carriers. They want:
– More financial help to cover the cost of greener fuels and new technology.
– A strong EU plan to boost the supply of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
– EU policies that consider the special needs of aviation, such as energy supply and infrastructure.
2. European Commission
The Commission says aviation must play its part in fighting climate change. It is pushing for:
– Strong rules that match international standards, like the ICAO’s CORSIA system.
– Policies that encourage investment in clean technology and fuels.
3. Regional and Secondary Airports
These airports are worried that higher costs and lower demand will hit them hardest. They fear:
– Losing flights and connections, which could leave some regions isolated.
– Economic harm to local communities that depend on air links for jobs and tourism.
4. Passengers and Local Communities
Travelers may face higher fares and fewer choices, especially in remote areas. Local economies could suffer if air links are cut.
Policy Implications: What’s at Stake for Europe?
The new climate rules and geopolitical changes have several big effects:
- Connectivity risks: If regional airports lose flights, some parts of Europe could become harder to reach, hurting businesses and families.
- Pressure to decarbonize: Airports and airlines must invest in sustainable fuels, new planes, and better carbon management.
- Financial support: The EU is using money from the ETS to help airports and airlines, but some say it’s not enough, especially for smaller airports.
Background: How Did We Get Here?
For decades, European aviation grew thanks to open borders, strong trade ties, and global supply chains. But in recent years:
– Political tensions have increased, making it harder to work together across borders.
– Supply chain problems (like those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic) have shown how fragile the system can be.
– The EU’s climate agenda has forced the sector to change quickly, as aviation is seen as a “hard-to-abate” sector—meaning it’s difficult to cut emissions without big changes.
The Road Ahead: What’s Next for European Aviation?
1. Geopolitical Uncertainty
The world is likely to remain unstable, with new risks and challenges for airlines and airports. Leaders like Marc De Vos say the sector must stay flexible and ready to adapt.
2. Full ETS Auctioning by 2026
By 2026, airlines will have to buy all their emissions permits, which will increase costs and push them to find cleaner ways to fly.
3. Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)
The success of Europe’s climate goals depends on making enough SAF and getting airlines to use it. This will need strong EU policies and more investment.
4. Protecting Connectivity
Policymakers and industry leaders are looking for ways to keep air links open, especially for regions that depend on them. This could mean more targeted support or special rules for remote areas.
Multiple Perspectives: What Different Groups Are Saying
- Industry (ACI Europe, Airlines): They support climate action but want more help to stay competitive and keep flights affordable.
- EU Policymakers: They say tough rules are needed to meet climate goals and keep Europe in line with global standards.
- Regional Airports: They ask for special help to avoid losing vital air links and harming local economies.
Practical Guidance for Stakeholders
If you work in or depend on European aviation, here’s what you should know:
– Airlines: Start planning for higher costs and look for ways to use more sustainable fuels. Apply for ETS-financed support as soon as possible.
– Airports: Work with airlines and local governments to secure funding for green upgrades and protect key routes.
– Passengers: Expect some fare increases, especially for flights from smaller airports. Stay informed about changes to routes and services.
– Local communities: Engage with policymakers to make sure your region’s needs are heard.
For more details on the EU’s aviation decarbonization policies, visit the European Commission’s official page on reducing emissions in aviation.
Official Resources
- ACI Europe: www.aci-europe.org
- Itinera Institute: www.itinera.team
Conclusion: A Sector at a Crossroads
Marc De Vos’s analysis at ACI Europe 2025 makes it clear: European aviation is facing a new era of uncertainty and change. Geopolitical shifts, economic fragmentation, and tough climate rules are forcing the sector to rethink how it operates. The future will depend on how quickly airlines and airports can adapt, invest in greener technology, and work with policymakers to protect Europe’s vital air links. The next few years—especially the move to full ETS auctioning in 2026—will be critical. As analysis from VisaVerge.com suggests, the choices made now will shape the future of European aviation for decades to come, affecting everyone from industry leaders to everyday travelers and local communities.
Learn Today
ETS (Emissions Trading System) → A market-based system where airlines buy permits for carbon emissions to limit pollution.
Fit for 55 → EU package aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) → Cleaner fuels made from renewable sources to reduce aviation’s carbon footprint.
Geopolitical Shifts → Changes in global power dynamics impacting international relationships and economic policies.
Air Connectivity → The ease with which passengers and goods can move between airports and regions.
This Article in a Nutshell
At ACI Europe 2025, Marc De Vos highlighted European aviation’s crossroads amid geopolitical shifts and EU climate policies. Airlines face rising costs due to full ETS auctions and sustainability goals. Protecting air links, security, and investing in green fuels remain vital for Europe’s aviation future and economic health.
— By VisaVerge.com
