Key Takeaways
• Australia’s net overseas migration fell from 536,000 in 2022-23 to 446,000 in 2023-24, forecasted at 260,000 for 2024-25.
• The 2024-25 Migration Program is capped at 185,000 permanent visas, with 70% allocated to skilled migrants, 30% for families.
• Population growth is uneven: Western Australia grew fastest at 2.5%, while Tasmania saw just 0.3% increase in 2024.
Australia’s population and immigration patterns are the subject of much debate, especially when claims arise about the country being “choked” by its current immigration rate. To fully understand these claims, it is important to look at the facts, the most recent migration data, historical trends, and how the government manages migration. This detailed analysis will help put Australia’s immigration rate and net overseas migration (NOM) in clear perspective, outlining how the numbers have changed, what they mean, and what the government is doing to respond.
Australia’s Current Immigration Rate and Population Growth
Australia’s population rose by 1.8% in the 12 months leading up to September 30, 2024, reaching a total of 27.3 million people, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics[3]. A large part of this growth came from people moving to Australia from other countries. In that period, overseas migration added 379,800 people to the population[3].
When looking at overall population numbers, this is a moderate rate of growth. But the most useful numbers are those for net overseas migration, which measures how many more people come to Australia than leave.
Net Overseas Migration Trends
In recent years, Australia saw changes in both the number of people arriving and leaving. Net overseas migration reached a very high number of 536,000 in the financial year 2022-23. However, it dropped to 446,000 in 2023-24[6]. The government expects that number to go lower, with the official forecast suggesting net overseas migration will decrease to 260,000 in 2024-25[4][7].
This steady decline shows that the rush of arrivals seen during and just after the pandemic is easing. For the first time since Australia reopened its borders following pandemic restrictions, arrivals dropped. Specifically:
– Migrant arrivals were 667,000 in 2023-24, a 10% dip from the 739,000 arrivals recorded the previous year[6].
– Departures increased by 8%, rising from 204,000 to 221,000 over the same period[6].
This change in migration patterns means fewer people are moving to Australia, while more are leaving than in the recent past.
What the Net Overseas Migration Data Shows
Net overseas migration figures are a key part of Australia’s population growth story. They are important for planning everything from roads and housing to schools and hospitals. The higher net migration meant faster population growth, which led to public conversations about whether services and infrastructure were keeping up. However, the numbers show this trend is reversing. The government’s forecast for the 2024-25 year puts net overseas migration at a level similar to what was seen in the years just before the pandemic.
A simple table would summarize recent changes:
| Year | Migrant Arrivals | Migrant Departures | Net Overseas Migration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 739,000 | 204,000 | 536,000 |
| 2023-24 | 667,000 | 221,000 | 446,000 |
| 2024-25 (est.) | – | – | 260,000 (forecasted) |
This table shows a clear drop in both gross arrivals and the net gain to Australia’s population from migration. It places the recent concerns about being “choked” by migrants in context. The reality is that the period of rapid inflows is over, and numbers are moving back toward what Australia saw in the past decade.
Australia’s Migration Policy Shifts
The Australian government regularly reviews its migration plan, adjusting the number of people allowed to enter under permanent visas. The Migration Program for 2024-25 is set at 185,000 permanent places, down from 190,000 in the previous year[8]. This slight reduction aims to better match migration with community needs and stresses on services.
The split of the Migration Program is about 70% for skilled migrants and 30% for family members[8]. The focus on skilled migration means that most arrivals are expected to have work skills the country needs.
Specific changes within the program show where the government wants to focus migration:
– Employer Sponsored visas: Increased from 36,825 in 2023-24 to 44,000 for 2024-25.
– Skilled Independent visas: Decreased from 30,375 to 16,900 places.
These shifts seek to fill gaps in the jobs market, especially for roles that are hard to fill within Australia’s own labor pool. By giving more places to employer-sponsored visas, the government is responding to calls from businesses that cannot find enough local workers with the right skills.
Anyone interested in the details of Australia’s migration planning levels can visit the official Department of Home Affairs website for up-to-date information about skilled occupations and visa categories.
Differences in Population Growth Across Australia
Population growth does not happen at the same rate across the entire country. Western Australia had the highest growth at 2.5% in the year leading up to September 2024. Victoria grew by 2.1%, and Queensland by 2.0%[3]. These states have large cities, many employers, and education centers that attract newcomers. In contrast, Tasmania grew only by 0.3% over the same period[3].
If we were to show this on a bar chart, Western Australia would have the tallest bar, followed by Victoria and Queensland, with Tasmania’s bar much shorter. This helps explain why some areas feel more pressure from migration than others. Big cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane see most new arrivals, while smaller states or regions often see slower growth.
The Role of Immigration in Australia’s History
Immigration is not new for Australia. It has always played a big role in shaping the country’s population and culture. Between 1945 and 2000, immigration was responsible for 59% of Australia’s total population increase (growing from 7.4 million to 19.1 million)[10]. In fact, Australians born overseas now make up 23% of the country’s population. To put this in perspective, that figure is 10% in the United States 🇺🇸 and 17% in Canada 🇨🇦[10].
Such a high share of foreign-born people highlights how much immigration is part of Australia’s identity and economic growth. Many new arrivals become citizens, raise families, and contribute to all sectors of society. This is in line with Australia’s long-standing image as a country of migrants.
But immigration is not just about people arriving. Australia also sees people leave. About 20% of immigrants eventually return to their home countries, and in recent years, more Australians born in the country or naturalized citizens have also left[10]. Some experts call this outflow a “brain drain”—meaning talented or skilled people are moving abroad for new work or family reasons.
Is the Immigration Rate “Choking” Australia?
The argument that Australia is being “choked” by its immigration rate does not reflect what the numbers show. Both the immigration rate and net overseas migration have already started to fall. The government is lowering planning numbers in response to pressure on housing, services, and jobs. Recent quarters saw drops in arrivals and higher departures.
Analysis from VisaVerge.com suggests that calls for lower immigration rates often come during times of housing shortages or when public services, like health and transport, feel stretched. However, data indicates that the record post-pandemic arrivals are over, and numbers are normalizing. The latest government forecasts show that migration will soon be close to pre-pandemic levels.
At the same time, policymakers know that strong population growth in specific cities can put pressure on housing and services. This is why there is now a focus on matching migration to labor shortages, regional needs, and improved planning of infrastructure.
What Drives the Changes in Immigration Rate?
There are several factors that shape Australia’s immigration rate:
1. Global demand for skilled workers has made countries like Australia attractive for people with in-demand skills.
2. Pandemic-related backlogs led to an unusual spike in arrivals when borders reopened.
3. Changes in government policy drive how many people are allowed to come as skilled workers, family members, or humanitarian migrants.
4. Economic cycles influence both arrivals and departures, as some people leave to work or study overseas or return to their home country.
The recent increase in departures, along with the drop in arrivals, shows Australia is returning to its usual pattern. As programs target certain skills and industries, the overall flow of people is now more controlled.
Understanding the Role of Skilled and Family Migration
Australia’s migration program puts a clear focus on skilled workers. About 70% of permanent migration spots are set aside for people who bring skills that Australia’s economy needs[8]. This includes workers sponsored by employers in key industries, as well as people who can fill jobs listed as in short supply.
Family migration makes up about 30% of the program, allowing Australians to reunite with partners, children, and parents. The balance between skilled and family migration shifts over time based on what the country needs, but the current setup aims for economic strength while still keeping families together.
Population Growth and Its Impacts
Rapid population growth can put pressure on roads, schools, hospitals, and housing supplies, especially when migration patterns are not spread equally across the country. That is why some regions feel crowded, while others need more people to fill job gaps or keep communities thriving.
The government sets migration planning levels each year to help manage this growth. Looking at net overseas migration and permanent migration numbers together gives a fuller picture of how population trends are shaping both challenges and opportunities in Australia.
Limitations of the Data
While the data on migration is carefully tracked, it has some limits. The Australian Bureau of Statistics bases numbers on records from visas, border checks, and surveys. Not all forms of movement are picked up right away, and there may be delays in reporting. Also, net overseas migration counts everyone who moves to or from Australia for 12 months or more. It does not separate temporary from permanent arrivals in all cases, which can make it harder to plan for things like schooling and housing.
Looking Ahead: What to Expect
With Australia’s net overseas migration forecast to decrease further in 2024-25 and the Migration Program slightly reduced, the population is expected to keep growing, but at a slower pace. Government programs will continue to adjust as new trends emerge. Policy discussions will likely focus on the balance between skills and family streams, how to help regional areas grow, and how to keep infrastructure and services meeting demand.
For individuals, employers, and community groups, these numbers show that while migration remains an important part of Australia’s growth and identity, it is being carefully managed. The fears that Australia is being overwhelmed are not backed by the most recent statistics.
Key Points
- Australia’s current immigration rate and net overseas migration have begun to drop from record highs.
- The government has adjusted migration planning to better balance population growth with community needs, putting a strong focus on skilled migration.
- Population growth is uneven across states, with Western Australia growing the fastest and Tasmania the slowest.
- Immigration has shaped Australia more than most other nations, and the country continues to rely on newcomers for growth and skills.
- While some people leave Australia, this movement is part of normal migration patterns, not a new problem.
- Claims that the country is being “choked” by immigrants are not supported by the latest numbers, which show a steady move back to levels seen before the pandemic.
In conclusion, Australia remains open to immigrants, but with clear and careful controls to make sure growth benefits everyone. Ongoing adjustment of planning levels and the mix of skilled versus family migrants show a measured approach. The net overseas migration and overall immigration rate will remain key numbers to watch as Australia moves forward. For more official details, readers should consult the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the most up-to-date and reliable government data.
Learn Today
Net Overseas Migration (NOM) → The difference between the number of people arriving in and leaving Australia for 12 months or more.
Australian Bureau of Statistics → Australia’s official statistical agency providing vital data on population, migration, and demographics for government planning.
Permanent Visas → Visas granted to individuals allowing them to live and work in Australia without time limits.
Skilled Independent Visa → A visa category for qualified workers who meet points-based assessment criteria and are not sponsored by employers.
Employer Sponsored Visa → A type of visa allowing Australian employers to sponsor skilled foreign workers for critical job shortages.
This Article in a Nutshell
Australia’s immigration numbers are falling rapidly, countering claims that the country is “choked” by migrants. Net overseas migration is forecast to drop to pre-pandemic levels by 2024-25, with careful government planning. Most visa spots now target skilled workers, reflecting economic priorities over unfiltered population increases. Migration remains highly managed.
— By VisaVerge.com
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