Independent Analyses Contradict DHS Deportation Claims Since January

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) The Department of Homeland Security is facing renewed scrutiny after independent researchers and advocacy groups challenged DHS claims about the scale and character of deportations since January 2025. The agency has asserted that deportations have surged past prior totals and that most people removed were criminals. However, TRAC data and other analyses tell a different story, raising questions about transparency, the accuracy of official narratives, and the real-world impact on families caught in the enforcement system.

Disputed headline numbers and timeline

At the center of the dispute are DHS claims that its agents deported over 500,000 people since January and that removals in the first 100 days surpassed all of Fiscal Year 2024.

• In April 2025, DHS suggested that its early enforcement numbers outstripped the previous year’s totals.
• TRAC data shows actual removals in FY 2024 were 272,000.
• DHS’s own cited figure for the first 100 days was 135,000, which makes the comparison to FY 2024 inaccurate.

Rather than a surge that dwarfed recent history, the public record indicates exaggeration and confusion over definitions. The result is a widening gap between DHS claims and what independent datasets show.

Why TRAC and independent datasets matter

TRAC (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse), maintained by a team at Syracuse University, is frequently used by reporters, lawmakers, and attorneys to measure immigration enforcement. It draws on government records obtained through public requests and long-running analysis.

• TRAC enables apples-to-apples comparisons across years.
• While no single dataset captures every aspect of removals, TRAC offers a reality check when DHS claims major jumps.
• In this case, TRAC data shows that the touted early 2025 enforcement footprint did not surpass FY 2024.

This contrast has fueled concerns that public statements are outpacing verifiable numbers.

The character of deportations: criminality and convictions

DHS has said most of those removed are criminals. Independent data raise important questions about that claim.

• As of September 2025, ICE detention data shows 71.5% of detainees held no criminal convictions at all.
• Among those with convictions, many had minor offenses, including traffic violations.
• A CBS News analysis of ICE data found only about 8% of detainees had violent crime convictions.

These figures undercut broad claims linking deportations primarily to serious crimes and suggest a large share of people in the enforcement pipeline do not have violent records. For families, these distinctions are not academic—labels affect public opinion and policy choices.

“Labels shape public opinion and policy choices.”
The distinction between serious criminal convictions and minor offenses matters for enforcement priorities and family stability.

Reports of forced removals involving U.S. citizen children

Advocacy groups have documented cases where DHS forcibly deported U.S. citizen children alongside noncitizen parents, contradicting the agency’s narrative that families were offered voluntary choices.

• These reports describe removals that cut off due process and depart from DHS’s own guidelines for handling mixed-status families.
• While these cases may not reflect every removal, they challenge blanket assurances about humanitarian safeguards.
• Such cases highlight a deeper fear when the rules presented publicly differ from what happens in the field.

The controversy around the undocumented population estimate

DHS and some officials have pointed to a 1.6 million drop in the undocumented population since January 2025, attributing much of it to voluntary departures encouraged by new programs.

• Independent researchers and fact-checkers caution this is an estimate with a wide margin of error.
• The figure includes multiple factors—deportations, deaths, and status changes—not just voluntary departures.
• The honest answer is that the size and cause of any decline remain uncertain.

Estimates can indicate direction, but they should not be presented as firm counts or used to claim credit without clear backing.

The public debate and credibility stakes

The public debate has sharpened as DHS has pushed back on critics, sometimes dismissing reporting as “fake narratives.”

• Newsrooms and outside analysts have published side-by-side comparisons of DHS claims, TRAC data, and ICE detention figures.
• According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, independent trackers have become central to immigration reporting—especially when official releases emphasize broad themes over specific, verifiable figures.

The friction is not only statistical; it affects trust, which is essential in an area where fear and family stakes run high.

Real-world impacts on communities and institutions

People affected by enforcement say the noise around deportations makes planning their lives harder.

• Mixed-status households want clarity on whether parents with old traffic tickets face the same risk as those with serious convictions.
• Employers wonder if a claimed surge signals more worksite checks.
• Community groups struggle to separate signal from spin to advise families about their rights.

When numbers are disputed or presented without context, daily decisions become harder. The uncertainty echoes beyond border towns and detention centers—touching classrooms, clinics, and workplaces far from the headlines.

The need for clear definitions and consistent language

Officials and researchers agree on one point: the need for precise definitions.

• Terms like “deportations,” “removals,” and “returns” can refer to different legal outcomes.
• Without consistent language, DHS claims can appear larger or smaller than TRAC figures.
• A careful reader needs to know whether figures reflect:
  1. Final removal orders,
  2. Expedited processes at the border, or
  3. People who left while still in proceedings.

Precision would help the public—and Congress—compare years fairly and judge policy on the facts.

Where to find official context

For readers seeking official context, DHS posts enforcement information and immigration statistics on government sites, including yearly totals and methodology notes.

• The department’s public data pages and ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations updates are intended to explain how numbers are collected and categorized.
• Those documents can illuminate why one dataset might differ from another.

For authoritative resources, see the Department of Homeland Security’s portal for Immigration Statistics.

What comes next

As the dispute continues, pressure is growing for:

• DHS to align public messaging with verifiable figures.
• Independent analysts to keep pushing for transparency.

TRAC data will likely remain a touchstone for reporters testing DHS claims. CBS News and other outlets are expected to keep comparing detention and conviction breakdowns against agency statements—particularly on whether deportations mostly involve people with criminal records.

Advocacy groups will continue documenting edge cases—like forced removal of U.S. citizen children—that test whether policy promises are honored in the field.

Final takeaway

The stakes are more than political. When DHS claims outpace the record, trust among immigrant communities is strained, and it complicates work for schools, hospitals, and local governments that interact with families caught in the process.

• Clear, careful reporting of deportations builds credibility and helps Congress evaluate oversight needs.
• Precision in public statements helps courts and reduces confusion about what policies actually do on the ground.

In an environment already charged by rhetoric, facts still matter most. That starts with acknowledging the limits of estimates, separating data from messaging, and letting the numbers—especially TRAC data—speak plainly.