Nearly half of global fleet growth through 2044 will come from aircraft renewal rather than pure expansion, according to Airbus’ latest long-term view of the market. In its October 2025 Airbus Global Market Forecast, the manufacturer says airlines and cargo operators will replace older jets at a rapid pace to cut fuel burn, meet tougher climate rules, and lower maintenance costs.
Airbus projects the world’s commercial fleet will nearly double to more than 49,000 aircraft by 2044, with demand for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years. Of those, 44% will be replacements, while the remaining 56% will drive net global fleet growth.
Renewal vs. Expansion — a decisive shift
The forecast points to a decisive shift: accelerated renewal is now almost as large a force as expansion in shaping the planes people fly. Airbus ties this to airlines modernizing fleets faster to meet environmental goals and to keep up with rising passenger expectations for quieter, more efficient cabins.
According to analysis by VisaVerge.com, the emphasis on replacing older jets—rather than simply adding capacity—shows how sustainability and cost control have moved to the center of fleet planning, especially as carriers face pressure from investors, customers, and regulators.
Regional drivers of demand
The Asia-Pacific, China, and North America markets will account for the largest share of demand, reflecting wider economic and demographic trends. Airbus indicates these regions will be strong both in new growth and in replacement needs as airlines retire earlier-generation aircraft.
For many carriers, the math is straightforward:
- Newer planes burn less fuel and produce fewer emissions.
- They often carry more passengers or cargo per trip.
- They help airlines meet climate targets and buffer against volatile fuel prices.
- They support compliance with evolving rules that push toward cleaner fleets.
This trend is reflected in government sustainability plans such as the Federal Aviation Administration’s focus on lower-emission operations and technology pathways in the United States 🇺🇸, detailed by the FAA at FAA sustainability.
Freight renewal: a sharp wave
Airbus’ findings highlight a sharp renewal wave in freight. The dedicated freighter fleet is forecast to grow by 45% by 2044, reaching around 3,420 units, with 1,530 of 2,605 new freighters (59%) replacing older models. That replacement rate is even higher than in the passenger market.
Cargo operators—many running aging aircraft at high utilization—are expected to switch to newer types that meet noise and emissions rules while offering better reliability and lower downtime. Renewal in freight mirrors passenger trends and is driven by the same forces: efficiency, compliance, and total cost of ownership.
Key figures from the Airbus Global Market Forecast
- Global fleet: >49,000 aircraft by 2044 (nearly double today’s levels)
- New deliveries (passenger + freighter): 43,420 over 20 years
- Replacement share: 44% of deliveries
- Net growth share: 56% of deliveries
- Freighter fleet growth: 45% increase by 2044
- Freighter replacements: 1,530 of 2,605 new freighters
- Services market: expected to roughly double to US$311 billion by 2044
Why renewal matters — impacts on people and policy
Aircraft renewal affects travelers, cargo networks, jobs, and climate goals:
- Passengers benefit from quieter cabins, better onboard features, and improved reliability—reducing delays and cancellations.
- Cargo customers gain more stable shipping schedules through higher aircraft availability.
- Communities near airports may see reduced noise and improved air quality.
- Faster renewal supports national and international emission reduction plans.
Airlines must balance timing with financial health. Replacing aircraft too early can strain balance sheets; waiting too long raises fuel and maintenance costs and risks non-compliance with new standards. Airbus’ data suggest airlines often see a payoff to moving sooner, and many carriers have accelerated orders to lock in delivery slots.
Services, training, and infrastructure implications
The forecast’s services outlook underscores another theme: new fleets depend on stronger support ecosystems. As the services market moves toward US$311 billion by 2044, the following will scale up:
- Maintenance providers and overhaul shops
- Training organizations and pilot/technician courses
- Technology partners offering advanced avionics, digital monitoring, and predictive maintenance
- Airports and ground handlers adapting to new aircraft (gates, ground vehicle charging, revised procedures)
These elements help airlines run aircraft at peak efficiency and maintain safety.
Replacing older jets is not just a fleet decision—it’s a systems decision that touches suppliers, airports, regulators, and local communities.
Policy coordination and planning needs
For policymakers, the renewal wave offers an opportunity to align climate objectives with industry planning. Clear emissions and noise targets can guide steady replacement without sudden shocks to capacity. Coordinated steps across regions are important because aircraft operate on global networks.
Regional differences point to where planning is most intense:
- Asia-Pacific and China: hubs of both expansion and renewal driven by traffic growth and fleet age profiles.
- North America: strong replacement dynamics as carriers swap out less efficient jets.
Industry groups and regulators can collaborate to support steady delivery schedules, training pipelines, and safety oversight that keep the renewal cycle on track.
Freight and supply-chain implications
Freight deserves close attention due to:
- A 45% rise in the dedicated freighter fleet
- Majority replacement mix (improving reliability and reducing downtime)
- E-commerce and express delivery growth demanding time-definite shipping
Replacing older cargo aircraft supports on-time performance and protects delivery windows for exporters and importers.
Effects for consumers and infrastructure
Consumers may not track aircraft types directly, but they will feel the changes:
- Potentially more stable fares as carriers are insulated from fuel price swings
- More consistent onboard experiences as fleets standardize
- Quieter operations for communities near airports
The split between replacement (44%) and growth (56%) also affects airports and air traffic systems:
- Planners need additional gates, runways, and traffic management for net growth.
- Replacement schedules must be managed to avoid capacity gaps during retirements and inductions.
- Coordination matters during peak seasons and when aircraft supply chains are tight.
Workforce and industry growth
As fleets modernize, demand for training and maintenance jobs tied to newer technology will expand. The projected US$311 billion services market by 2044 signals growth in expertise, tooling, and digital support:
- Airlines will seek partners for maintenance, training, and digital operations.
- Safety and efficiency will remain central as new aircraft enter service.
Bottom line
Airbus’ forecast is a plane-by-plane plan for the next two decades: replace older jets that cost more to run, add new ones to meet traffic and cargo demand, and build the services network to keep them flying.
If the forecast holds:
- Nearly half of global fleet growth will come from aircraft renewal.
- There will be 43,420 deliveries supporting replacement and expansion.
- Freight will undergo a strong transition with 1,530 of 2,605 new freighters replacing older units.
- By 2044, the world’s fleet would top 49,000 aircraft.
These levers—renewal, growth, and services—will shape how people and goods move and reflect a wider push toward efficiency and cleaner skies anchored in today’s fleet decisions.
This Article in a Nutshell
Airbus’ October 2025 Global Market Forecast projects the commercial fleet will nearly double to over 49,000 aircraft by 2044, with demand for 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft. Crucially, 44% of those deliveries will replace older jets, reflecting a strategic shift toward renewal to reduce fuel burn, comply with stricter climate and noise rules, and lower maintenance costs. The Asia-Pacific, China, and North America markets will dominate demand. The freighter segment is set for a 45% expansion, with 1,530 of 2,605 new freighters replacing older models. Services revenue is expected to roughly double to US$311 billion by 2044, boosting maintenance, training, and infrastructure needs. Policymakers and industry must coordinate delivery schedules, training pipelines, and regulatory frameworks to manage the renewal-growth balance and realize environmental benefits without straining capacity or finances.
